Ukrainian forces remain under intense pressure at multiple points along the 900-mile front line with Russia, as Kyiv awaits a much-needed fresh injection of Western military aid and prepares for an expected summer offensive by Moscow's troops.
Ukrainian units have been forced back in several areas over the past six months, following the failure of Kyiv's summer 2023 counteroffensive operation and partially due to the sudden constriction of military support from the U.S., due to partisan gridlock in Washington, D.C.
Timelapse maps created by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate how Russian forces blasted resolute Ukrainian defenders out of their fortified positions in Avdiivka and Marinka in eastern Donetsk Oblast and into tactical retreats.
Russia's grinding push in Donetsk continues, while Moscow's troops are still pushing towards the Kharkiv city of Kupiansk and seeking to overturn the meager territorial gains achieved by Ukrainian attackers in southern Zaporizhzhia region.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Ukraine could lose the war without more Western backing. "If Ukraine loses the war, other states will be attacked," he said. "This is a fact."
Signals from the Hill this week indicate that the long-delayed multinational security package—which includes more than $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine—may soon be approved. But the immediate outlook for Ukraine remains bleak, despite continued successful strikes deep into Russian territory.
Russian ballistic missile and drone missile strikes across Ukraine appear to be increasingly penetrating the national air defense umbrella, possibly due to a lack of munitions caused by slowing Western aid. Thursday night saw a fresh attack, with multiple civilians reported killed. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
At the front, Ukraine is braced for a hard summer. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told The Washington Post this week that a new Russian offensive is expected in June, and that Moscow's offensives will continue until at least January 2025 when the next U.S. presidential term begins.
The ISW wrote on Thursday that it believes that "current Ukrainian artillery and air defense shortages resulting from the lack of U.S. security assistance are allowing Russian forces to make marginal tactical advances."
"Future Russian assaults may be able to achieve more significant gains should the U.S. continue to withhold assistance to Ukraine," the think tank added. "Ukrainian forces have, however, previously demonstrated their ability to repel Russian assaults and inflict significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces when adequately provisioned."
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David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
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