What Americans Really Think About Jan. 6

A majority of Americans fear that another event like the January 6, 2021 uprising on the U.S. Capitol could happen again in the coming years, according to recent polling, laying bare widespread anxieties about polarization and divisiveness in politics.

The survey, conducted on behalf of Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on December 19 among 1,500 U.S. adults, also revealed that more people think the full truth about the incident has not been made public than those who do, as questions linger in political discourse about the role of law enforcement in the uprising.

The results suggest that, three years on, January 6 is a date that still weighs heavy on many Americans' minds, who may see it as marking the start of a new era of social upheaval and distrust in public institutions.

"Americans are clearly much more concerned about political violence after January 6," Julie Norman, a professor of U.S. politics at University College London (UCL), told Newsweek. "Even nearly three years on, many Americans perceive that polarization and political divides are just as deep, if not deeper, than they were in the last election. And the fact that we are looking at a likely repeat of contenders with a probable Biden-Trump matchup only exacerbates fears of potential upheaval."

Despite President Joe Biden pledging "not to divide, but unify" the nation after Donald Trump left the White House, he arguably has not done so. A Pew Research Center survey of 8,480 adults, conducted between July 10-16, found Americans are now more polarized than before, with 65 percent saying they feel exhausted and 55 percent angry with U.S. politics.

With both men currently the frontrunners in their respective primary fields, the 2024 election looks to be a probable repeat of the 2020 vote, which Trump continues to claim was rigged despite no official investigation supporting the assertion.

Two competing narratives are expected to emerge as America heads to the polls once again, both proclaiming the other's illegitimacy. Trump has already suggested he thinks the 2024 election too could be subject to interference, while others are seeking to have his name struck from the ballot over his alleged role in January 6—all of which may sow dissent and distrust in the democratic system that could lead to a flashpoint.

In this climate, the Newsweek poll found that, overall, 56 percent of Americans think another January 6-style event could happen again, compared to 13 percent who thought it was unlikely.

At the same time, 68 percent said Trump would accuse Biden of cheating if he loses, while 51 percent thought Biden would do the same if he lost. Some 63 percent felt the 2024 election would result in rioting in some form—but with more people thinking a Trump victory would than a Biden victory.

"There's a self-perpetuating cycle between fears of political violence heading into November's election, and media coverage of January 6," Thomas Gift, director of the UCL Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek.

"Liberal outlets have kept the Capitol insurrection on a nearly nonstop loop for three years, while many right-wing broadcasts have continued to stoke conspiracy theories that the uprising was an 'inside job' or a 'false flag' operation," he said. "To the extent these narratives both reinforce and reflect public opinion, there's little doubt that polarization has, if anything, amplified since Biden was sworn into office."

Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham, suggested fears of another January 6 were justifiable. He argued that January 6 was "part of a Trump-incited attempt to stop the peaceful transfer of power" that "hadn't happened before in the entire history of the American republic." The former president has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

But despite the apparent historical gravity of the uprising, Phelps said the facts around it were "obscured" for many.

"The self-enclosed nature of social media feeds, the bias of right-wing news outlets, and the constant stream of disinformation from Donald Trump have minimized the significance, violence, and criminality of the January 6 events, as Trump claims that he is a persecuted leader of a populist movement," he added.

Newsweek approached the Trump campaign via email for comment on Thursday.

These competing narratives appear to play into Americans' views about January 6 itself.

Some 52 percent of respondents to Newsweek's poll thought the full truth about the uprising had not been shared with the public, compared to 29 percent who thought it had. But among Trump voters, those who thought there were still unknowns about January 6 was far higher—68 percent—than among Biden voters, 43 percent.

A similar picture emerged when asked about whether FBI or other law enforcement agents could have been involved in instigating the January 6 riot: 46 percent overall believed it likely; 67 percent among Trump voters and 38 percent among Biden voters.

House Speaker Mike Johnson's decision to release security footage from the Capitol in small packages with faces blurred, citing retaliation concerns, raised questions in December, and prompted fresh conspiracy theories that it was allegedly being done to obfuscate the identities of federal agents in the crowd.

Similarly, the wiping of devices used by the Secret Service around the time of the riot prompted accusations that the agency deleted the messages intentionally to protect Trump—a claim it has vociferously denied.

At least a couple of police officers have been imprisoned for committing crimes during the riot and one former FBI agent was charged in June. To date, no acting federal agents have been arrested or charged with any crime in relation to January 6.

"It's true that Trump supporters are wary of government institutions in general and more distrustful of the FBI in particular, so it's not surprising that they are more likely than Biden supporters to see FBI involvement in January 6," Norman said. "But the numbers are high for Biden supporters on this question as well."

Gift said the results showed "a clear asymmetry in distrust for the nation's leaders and institutions.

"Given Trump's incessant rhetoric against the 'deep state' and his claims that the legal system has been 'weaponized' against him, it's no surprise that many right-wing voters remain hyper-activated," the political scientist added. "Where Trump goes, his base follows. And Trump's increasingly dark rhetoric continues to lead his most devoted followers down a path of resistance to anything remotely tied to the 'establishment.'"

Phelps said use of the word "polarization" to describe the current political discourse "makes it harder to realize that the dynamic here is not symmetrical," as while Democrats "remain committed to basic precepts of civil democracy, including rule of law and electoral impartiality," Republicans have increasingly "shown a bent toward taking any measures necessary to impose their own single-party rule."

"This runs the gamut from extremist redistricting that changes the playing field in their favor to court-packing, all more subtle than what was obvious on January 6," he said, while the Republican base was "still deep in the fever dreams of Trumpism."

"All of this makes American political developments deeply disconcerting to anyone versed in the history of the authoritarian right," Phelps added.

While many Americans may fear the threat of political violence following January 6, this does not necessarily mean it is expected or likely to occur.

"I would note that thinking an uprising 'could' happen is different than 'will' happen—that is, many Americans know another January 6 is possible, if not necessarily probable," Norman said. "And concerns about political violence is very different from support for it or willingness to participate in it."

She added that an incident of a similar nature to January 6 was unlikely due to increased security around the Capitol, but noted that "tensions will be high in the 2024 election, especially if the legitimacy of the election is again called into doubt" and so some form of protests "are certainly likely."

"The question will be if they remain primarily nonviolent or tip into rioting or violence," Norman said.

Gift too thought it was "not unreasonable to think the next election could trigger social unrest," but referred to a February 2022 study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which suggested surveys finding American support for political violence as high as 40 percent were upwardly biased. Instead, it said that support was, at most, less than 7 percent.

Phelps said that, aside from ultraright-wing factions, some of those convicted of crimes in the wake of January 6 were "just naïve followers of Trump" whose "lives are now irrevocably changed by their criminal convictions."

"The best way to stop a recurrence, in my view, would be for their stories to be made more widely known in the news media," he said. "Many of them deeply regret having taken part."