What Polls Say About Stacey Abrams vs. Brian Kemp With 50 Days to Midterm

Polling in the run-up to Georgia's gubernatorial election in November shows incumbent GOP Governor Brian Kemp and Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams in a tight race.

The latest polling average in the race compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows Kemp with 49.3 percent of voters backing him, while 45.5 percent support his opponent. That is an almost 4 point lead that Kemp has over Abrams.

However, one of the most recent polls in the race shows Abrams could be closing in on Kemp.

Quinnipiac University, which published a survey on the governor's race last week, said that the contest is "too close to call," and found Kemp has support among 50 percent of Georgia voters, and Abrams with the support of 48 percent.

What Polls Say About Abrams vs. Kemp
Above, Georgia gubernatorial candidates Stacey Abrams and Governor Brian Kemp debate at Georgia Public Broadcasting on October 23, 2018, in Atlanta. Polling in the run-up to Georgia's gubernatorial election shows incumbent Kemp and Democratic candidate... Pool

The university wrote that its poll found that 94 percent of likely Georgia voters "who support a candidate in the race for governor say their minds are made up about how they will cast their vote." The poll surveyed 1,278 voters between September 8 and September 12 and has a margin of error of 2.7 percent.

"No cushion and no comfort zone for either candidate as the Georgia governor's race roars to a finish and with the vast majority of voters saying they've already made their choice, there's little wiggle room for either candidate," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement on the university's website.

Another poll released earlier this month that was published by InsiderAdvantage and FOX 5 Atlanta found Kemp with a larger lead.

That survey found Kemp leading Abrams 50 percent to 42 percent, which is an 8 point advantage. The poll surveyed 550 voters and had a margin of error of 4.2 percent.

"Kemp leads in every age group in the survey. He receives right at 10% of African American support and a rather astounding 68% of white voters surveyed. Abrams has an impressive 54% of female voters while Kemp receives 63% from men," InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery said, according to Fox 5 Atlanta.

Meanwhile, a poll from Emerson College that contacted 600 Georgia voters between August 28 and August 29, determined Kemp had support from 48 percent of voters, while Abrams had the backing of 44 percent. The survey's margin of error was 3.9 percent.

"Recent polling is just the latest confirmation that our race is statistically tied, with multiple surveys released in the past two weeks showing this contest is more competitive than ever," a spokesperson for the Abrams campaign wrote in an email to Newsweek.

"The data doesn't lie: we are seeing a shift in momentum toward Stacey Abrams and Georgia Democrats fueled as a reaction to the extremism and incompetence of Brian Kemp, who is closing out his campaign by refusing to save a closing hospital," the spokesperson added.

Abrams has placed blame for the closure of the Atlanta Medical Center, which announced it would be shutting down earlier this month, on Kemp's decision to not expand Medicaid in Georgia.

Newsweek has reached out to Kemp's campaign for comment.

Uncommon Knowledge

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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

About the writer


Xander Landen is a Newsweek weekend reporter. His focus is often U.S. politics, but he frequently covers other issues including ... Read more

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