What a Second Trump Term Means for Taxes

A second Donald Trump presidency would likely see another round of tax cuts targeted at the wealthy, similar to his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, according to a prominent taxation expert and lawyer.

The claim was made by Ed Oswald, who, along with writer Alan Axelrod, co-authored From Ronald to Donald: How the Myth of Reagan Became the Cult of Trump.

In an interview with Newsweek, Oswald said a second Trump term would be unlikely to see America's national debt, which currently stands at $34 trillion, slashed due to the Republican front-runner's support for tax cuts and relatively high spending.

"Gravity is ultimately going to catch up with us and we have to start paying our bills," Oswald said.

Following a string of primary victories on Super Tuesday, which led to former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley dropping out of the race, Trump has the 2024 Republican presidential nomination all but locked up.

Oswald said that if elected in November, Trump will be under pressure from Republican donors to cut the highest rate of income tax, which currently sits at $609,350+ for singles, and $731,200+ for a married couple filing together.

"I see really the pressure probably on the personal income tax side," he said. "Right now, the highest marginal rate is 37 percent. I could see pressure to reduce that."

The tax expert also predicted that Trump would extend income tax cuts included in his landmark 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which slashed most of the seven income tax brackets, including the top rate, and are due to expire in December 2025. An analysis of the tax cuts by the progressive-leaning Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy concluded that almost half of the benefits of the act went to individuals earning more than $232,000 per year.

Noting Trump's freedom to act would depend on whether the Republicans or Democrats win the House and Senate in November, Oswald said: "Trump had the tax act in 2017. I really do expect more of the same if Trump is elected that we would have again more so-called supply-side tax cuts.

"If Trump wins again and the House and Senate are controlled by the Republicans, I think you'll see more tax cuts, and also, some of the 2017 tax cuts are set to expire and I think you would see those renewed, as well."

However, Oswald also said Trump would be unlikely to reduce public spending overall, though he could scrap the Affordable Care Act due to his personal "venom" toward former President Barack Obama, increasing U.S. debt.

"When Reagan came into office, the U.S. national debt was one trillion and right now it's 34 trillion," Oswald said. "Tax cuts do not pay for themselves, and despite what the GOP says about that, at some point push is going to come to shove and we're going to have to pay attention to the national debt, which is now larger than the GDP of the United States. One would think that gravity is ultimately going to catch up with us and we have to start paying our bills and stop mortgaging the future.

"Hypocrisy lives certainly in Washington, D.C....the GOP when there's a Democrat in the executive office rail against the debt and deficit and so-called reckless spending...but Bush was a big spender, Reagan was a big spender, Trump was a big spender, and the GOP go along with that. They don't seem to focus on the national debt when they control the purse strings versus when a Democrat is elected."

Oswald argued that for a Republican, Trump is unusually supportive of certain social benefits, possibly linked to his base of support being more blue collar than that usually enjoyed by the GOP.

"Trump, among all members of the GOP, has not said anything about cutting Social Security or Medicare because people love big government," he said. "They perhaps just don't want to pay for it.

"I would imagine from what I've read and understood, certainly many Trump supporters like Social Security, they like Medicare and Trump knows that."

Oswald also suggested that tax cuts are an effective way for Trump to reconcile himself to the Republican elites, including donors, who find him unattractive on a personal level.

"It's a bit of a paradox and I think frankly a bit of a human dilemma," he said. "I think there's a lot in the GOP who despise Trump, but the human condition being as it is, enjoy these tax cuts and I think it's a little bit of a test of character frankly...as we say in the book, 'Who's going to say no to Santa Claus?'"

When contacted for comment, a Trump representative directed Newsweek to the GOP frontrunner's 'Agenda 47' campaign website. This said that Trump had "passed record-setting tax relief for the middle class" during his first term in office.

Potentially complicating his presidential bid, Trump is facing four criminal cases over allegations that he orchestrated the payment of hush money to an adult film star, mishandled classified documents and broke the law attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election result nationwide and in Georgia. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all counts and insists the cases against him are politically motivated.