This year obliterated climate records as we suffered through some of the worst disasters in modern history. These events have had an extraordinary impact on many lives and more such events will continue to do so. The way we look at investing, with an eye toward the past, undervalues extremes and causes underinvestment in climate solutions. We need to invest more wisely and be prepared for expanded extreme events that even scientists cannot predict.
Going forward, all we know is that adverse weather events will increase in both frequency and impact, and we cannot quantify either component of the risk calculation.
Exposure to what we do not know is potentially lethal. What we do know is that it will be worse than what we can predict based solely on existing data, and damage, both in terms of treasure and human life, will be unimaginable. Just ask the people who used to live in the northern hills of California, the valleys of Houston, the New South Wales and Riverina regions of Australia, or Henan Province in China
The exorbitant threats of climate change, like increases in wildfires and extreme droughts, aren't factored into people's decisions when purchasing a new home. And these are not threats of the future, these impacts are being felt now. Earlier this year, Las Vegas communities experienced water shortages and contamination and wildfires have raged across the West. These will intensify in the future.
Humanity seems misinformed or unaware of the implications of their actions as they move from one high-climate-risk area to another. Even as they move into areas that are prone to extreme heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and intense hurricanes, many seem to be either oblivious to or in denial of the gravity of the situation. Buying a new home that appears to be a smart investment may, in fact, have fatal consequences.
If we take a snapshot of the United States as an example, what we would expect climate to look like and what it will be are two very different things. As 2022 comes to a close, we have not established a new normal. There will be no new normal any time soon, and anyone who is looking for on is on a fool's errand. Things will continue to get worse.
What might be expected over the next 10 years in view of a statistically normal distribution based on historical events over the past few decades is irrelevant.
Expected damages from those potential tipping points will never be considered without decision makers going outside their comfort zones. Unless they recognize that the exaggerated, but as yet uncalibrated extremes of the impacts about which they are concerned, they will not live up to their oaths of office.
And that is a problem.
Risk is defined as the likelihood multiplied by the consequences. People are underestimating the consequences of climate change when making decisions in all aspects of their lives; if they don't take account of the worst extremes, they are not taking account of active climate change.
If the consequences are huge, we should take them into account while it's still inexpensive to do so. Being prepared does not mean protecting yourself from every possible event. It means as we look forward, we account for a time of greater and increasing extremes, and our short-term decisions on how we invest need to take into account what the future may look like. Ignoring bad possible outcomes will only exacerbate our own risk. We don't know how likely it is that a tipping point will occur or that we, as a species, will irreversibly alter the climate.
If we don't take account of the possibility of extremes, we are all neglecting our responsibility in the face of active climate change.
Gary Yohe is the Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in Connecticut. He served as convening lead author for multiple chapters and the Synthesis Report for the IPCC from 1990 through 2014 and was vice-chair of the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
