Who Is Going After Russia's Oil?

Russian regions close to the border with Ukraine have been weathering a spate of suspected drone and sabotage attacks in recent days as Kyiv's troops prepare for their long-expected spring counteroffensive.

The BBC reported more than 20 suspected drone attacks inside Russia this year, including at least three in the past week. Many of the most recent strikes appear designed to degrade logistics networks running to and through the Russian southwest, and into the occupied territories of southern Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula.

This week, there have been two suspected drone attacks on the Ilsky oil refinery in the southwestern Krasnodar region, close to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and about 125 miles from Crimea.

Those followed a strike on an oil facility in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol—home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet—which according to Kyiv destroyed about 45,000 tons of oil products intended for use by Moscow's warships.

Other mysterious explosions have been reported at a military airport and along two railways in the Bryansk region. The train attacks derailed two locomotives reportedly carrying fuel toward the front lines in Ukraine.

Also this week, Moscow blamed Ukraine for a dual-drone attack on the Kremlin compound, which it framed as a failed attempt to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kyiv has generally refused to confirm or deny involvement in strikes on Russian military and infrastructure targets far behind the front lines, especially if the locations are within Russia's internationally recognized borders rather than in occupied Crimea or Donbas.

Ukrainian officials have, however, said that degrading Russian military logistics is an important element of preparations for a spring counteroffensive.

Responding to the recent sabotage attacks, Mykhailo Podolyak—an adviser to the head of Ukraine's presidential office—wrote on Twitter that the incidents are a signal of the "growing governance weakness of the state." Podolyak also said the attacks were evidence of the loss of "control over the regions," and the "emergence of aggressive and paramilitary protest [guerrilla] groups."

Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek that the uncertainty around the recent strikes is intentional.

"It's hard to say," he responded when asked if Kyiv was the most likely perpetrator. "In such issues there is a strategic ambiguity. Governments usually neither confirm nor deny. There is also the possibility that it might Russian partisan groups. On the eve of the counteroffensive, everything that weakens the enemy is good for Ukraine."

The Kremlin is grappling with a simmering partisan movement, though the size and capabilities of the violent anti-government movements remain unclear.

Alexey Baranovsky, deputy to former Russian lawmaker Ilya Ponomarev—who is organizing anti-government groups abroad and has links to Russian nationals fighting against Moscow's troops in Ukraine, and grassroots Russian partisan groups operating domestically—told Newsweek: "Ukrainian partisans operate in Crimea and on the occupied territories of Donbas, Russian rebels inside Russia."

Asked whether the location of recent attacks inside Russian borders suggest cooperation between Kyiv and anti-government partisans, Baranovsky said such contact is "not required."

"First, sabotage on the railroads and so on also occurs in the depths of Russia, in Siberia and in the Far East. Second, residents of border regions are more included in the local agenda. Many have relatives and friends in Ukraine, they know and understand more about Russian aggression. So, there are more rebels here."

The density of infrastructure and military facilities in western Russia also mean attacks there are more likely, Baranovsky said. "Not just more targets, but more military targets, targets that are used for war."

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry by email for comment.