Who Will Win 'Barbie' vs. 'Oppenheimer' Showdown? What the Numbers Predict

The release of highly-anticipated movies Barbie and Oppenheimer this weekend has set the stage for a box-office battle of the ages as each film vies for the coveted top spot. Newsweek has cast its eye over pointers to whom might win the battle at the box office.

The films are set to be released across the U.S. on Friday. And while they tackle vastly different subject matters—one is a comedy, while the other is a biographical thriller—the release date clash has led to the coining of the term "Barbenheimer," as a nod to the headline-making rivalry.

Barbie, the much-loved doll created by Ruth Handler for Mattel in 1959, has been brought to life by Oscar-nominated director Greta Gerwig for the whimsical comedy, which stars Margot Robbie as the titular character opposite Ryan Gosling's Ken.

The big-budget Warner Bros. parody boasts a star-studded cast. Will Ferrell plays the CEO of a toy company, while Sex Education star Ncuti Gatwa and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings' Simu Liu portray two other Ken dolls. Insecure's Issa Rae plays another Barbie alongside Transparent's Hari Nef. Anne Hathaway, Michael Cera, Kate McKinnon, Rhea Perlman, and narrator Helen Mirren are just a few of the other stars.

In the opposite corner sits Universal Pictures' Oppenheimer, which tells the story of theoretical physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer, who had a pivotal role in developing the first nuclear weapons.

Directed by Christopher Nolan, the movie also features a host of recognizable faces, with Cillian Murphy in the titular role, and Emily Blunt portraying his wife. Also included in the cast are Robert Downey Jr., Matt Damon, Josh Hartnett, Florence Pugh, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh, and Casey Affleck.

With both movies gearing up for a box-office showdown, Newsweek has looked into which of the two is most likely to emerge the victor.

Box-Office Predictions

Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian told Newsweek that "this is going to be a tale of two distinct box-office trajectories, with Barbie the clear favorite to win the opening weekend derby."

There are a number of factors working in Barbie's favor. According to British newspaper The Guardian, the doll-themed movie will open in 4,200 movie theaters across the U.S., while Oppenheimer will debut in 600 fewer. With a listed running time of 180 minutes, Oppenheimer is also one hour longer than Barbie, meaning less time for screenings.

Box-office projections for Barbie's opening weekend performance range from analysts' lofty predictions of $140 million to $175 million from Boxoffice Pro to the relatively modest $75 million from distributor Warner Bros. All numbers eclipse the $52 million to $75 million Boxoffice Pro has projected for Oppenheimer.

While Dergarabedian has crowned Barbie the weekend winner-in-waiting, he foresees Oppenheimer "benefiting over the long term as it builds on the prestige and obvious awards season buzz that will build in the coming weeks."

Betting Odds

In figures shared with Newsweek, U.K. bookmakers Betfair agree with the analysts and studios in backing Barbie to be the box office champ.

For the dates July 21-23, Betfair gives odds of 1/20 on Barbie coming out on top, while Oppenheimer trails with 15/2.

Meanwhile, bettingexpert.com gives Barbie a clear edge with 1/5 over Oppenheimer's 4/1, citing subject matter as a key driver.

A spokesperson for bettingexpert.com told Newsweek: "While the betting markets favor Oppenheimer, our analysis of historical movie production budgets and worldwide gross revenue sees Barbie having a greater chance to top the U.S. box office. This is further supported by Barbie's strong brand recognition, with the movie appealing to a wider audience."

Social Media Mentions

A spokesperson for social media management platform Hootsuite told Newsweek that a box office face-off between a dark Nolan-directed movie and a film light and colorful in nature occurred almost 15 years to the day. On July 18, 2008, Nolan's The Dark Knight opened on the same day as the ABBA-themed musical Mamma Mia on July 18th, 2008.

"While it's not possible to view social data from 15 years ago, we can see that on opening weekend Mamma Mia brought in $27 million while The Dark Knight brought in $158.4 million. Will history repeat itself and will Nolan's Oppenheimer take the top box office spot this upcoming weekend? Based on the social data we pulled from Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, YouTube, and more, we'd say no."

Given its ubiquitous presence in Americans' daily lives, social media is often seen as the bellwether in predicting everything from movie openings to election outcomes.

Crunching the numbers between the various platforms, Hootsuite found that Barbie has generated more than 12 million mentions online over the past 30 days, compared to Oppenheimer's tally at just over 3 million.

"At the Barbie premiere on July 9th, the movie received over 900,000 mentions on social [media]," the Hootsuite representative told Newsweek. "The most notable Oppenheimer mention spike came on July 13th, when the cast left the [London] premiere of the movie to support the SAG-AFTRA (Screen Actors Guild—American Federation of Television and Radio Artists) strike. There were 183,000 social mentions online that day.

"Diving deeper, we decided to also look at conversations around each movie's main characters. Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling together have received over 2 million mentions on social, while Cillian Murphy and Emily Blunt have received roughly 500,000 mentions in the last 30 days."

The Power of Marketing

It's difficult to ignore Barbie's imminent release. The film's omnipresent marketing has seen TV screens, merchandise and the internet flooded in pink over the past several weeks. Adweek has reported that Mattel initiated more than 100 merchandising partnerships and brand collaborations ahead of Barbie's release.

The Hootsuite spokesperson noted to Newsweek that previous unconfirmed reports had claimed that the Barbie movie "had a $100-million budget for marketing alone. And it really shows. From the different product collaborations with Airbnb, Aldo, Bumble and Krispy Kreme (just to name a few), to their global pink-carpet premieres, there has been a lot to talk about the Barbie movie premiere."

For proof of the far-reaching marketing efforts behind the movie, type the name "Barbie" into a Google search and watch your screen light up in a pink celebration.

These efforts likely had a great hand in boosting social media interest around Barbie. For comparison, Hootsuite compared the film's online interest to that of other movies in the 30 days leading up to their premieres.

Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One generated over 303,000 mentions on social media, while another Tom Cruise project, Top Gun: Maverick, pulled in 267,000. The Little Mermaid generated roughly 28,000 mentions on social media, and Avatar: The Way of Water saw a tally of 1.7 million.

The biggest beneficiary of all this buzz and hoopla are the movie theaters that have had something of a rollercoaster ride of a summer, and of course moviegoers who are literally looking to dress up and have a blast at the cinema this weekend.

A Win-Win Situation

The much-hyped rivalry between Barbie and Oppenheimer has proven to be a winner for both movies—no matter the outcome of this weekend's opening.

Comscore's Dergarabedian told Newsweek that "there have been many examples of big box-office weekends that resonated within the culture and thus captured the collective imagination. However, nothing quite like 'Barbenheimer' has entered the public consciousness perhaps ever in the history of the movie business, wherein a rare confluence of factors has created a once-in-a-lifetime branding and awareness, building opportunity that has no obvious parallels in the modern era.

"Both films are benefiting as they are basking in the same afterglow of heightened awareness and a FOMO [fear of missing out] factor that's off the charts."

"Perhaps most striking is that though on their face these films have wildly different demographic appeal, the crossover factor is not to be underestimated with many looking to be the first on their virtual block to see both films in the same weekend," Dergarabedian added. "Truly extraordinary!"

Per The Guardian, movie theater chain AMC has revealed that, to date, more than 40,000 people have purchased tickets to watch both films on the day they open.

"The biggest beneficiary of all this buzz and hoopla are the movie theaters that have had a very rollercoaster ride of a summer and of course moviegoers who are literally looking to dress up and have a blast at the cinema this weekend," said Dergarabedian.