Last week, in a suburban district that was trending GOP, New York's 3rd Congressional District, Democrat Tom Suozzi secured a decisive victory over his Republican rival by an eight-point margin. This represents a significant shift from 2022, when the GOP carried the district by the same margin, signaling a leftward swing of 15 points in under two years.
To be sure, much of the outcome can be attributed to the nuances of that race, like New York Republicans' absentee ballot failures. Meanwhile, Suozzi previously held the seat for four years. Combined with being the former county executive, he enjoyed a name ID advantage over Mazi Melesa Pilip, who had the unenviable task of running as George Santos' successor. Good luck with that!
Even so, a closer analysis of the race reveals potential red flags for the Republican Party in 2024, even as polling suggests President Donald Trump holds both a national popular vote and a swing state lead over President Joe Biden.
Most concerning is the effectiveness of Democratic ads targeting Pilip's abortion stance by playing a clip of the candidate describing herself as "Pro-Life." The message's simplicity should alarm Republicans up and down the ballot, as nearly all GOP candidates have used this label at some point.
As WPA Intelligence's polling warns, Democrats have successfully redefined pro-life in the minds of many voters. For most Republicans, there is no tension between being Pro-Life and providing exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother, but most Democrats, and many Independents, are convinced being Pro-Life means opposing these accommodations. Our September 2022 poll even found that 74 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of CNN viewers believe Republicans want to ban birth control.
Of course, few if any Republicans want this. In reality, there is far more evidence of Democrats' extremism on abortion.
That understood, such facts are largely inconsequential in the face of a highly partisan media bolstering these narratives. That's why Republicans must have proactive communication strategies that address these concerns head on. Not disparaging vote by mail would also be wise.
In addition to abortion attacks, another one of the House Democrats' ads slammed Pilip as belonging to "the extreme wing of the Republican party" and accusing her of backing "massive cuts to Social Security." Again, there was little proof of any of this. However, the Democrats' success at tying GOP candidates—not just in New York—to wildly unpopular stances on seniors benefits and the national GOP brand should prompt introspection.
Donald Trump's return to the White House, defending a razor thin House majority, and retaking the Senate all run through suburbs that in many cases mirror NY-03. Sure, most polls look good now, but as my colleagues have argued, this could also be the product of methodological mirages.
Furthermore, what happens if the former president is convicted in one of his pending cases? Perhaps nothing changes and the recent troubling polling for Republicans on this question merely reflects the respondents' desirability bias. But what if it does?
A sensible strategy would account for such possibilities. Alienating "Karens" while hoping that "Jamal and Julio" will rescue us, as one GOP congressman proposes, is a formula for electoral disaster. One of the reasons why it is so profoundly stupid, as WPA and others have noted, is that there are literally many more "Karens" than "Jamals and Julios"—especially in swing states.
With liberals dominating most of our country's major cultural institutions, the absurdity of left-wing gender politics will be swept under the rug in the face of deeply foolish conspiracy theories by right-wing grifters claiming Taylor Swift belongs to a Deep State psyop.
Similarly, and this shouldn't have to be said, declaring war on Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. may generate clicks but won't help Republicans court Black voters in must-win states, like Georgia.
Calls to eliminate the Social Security and Medicare that support nearly 60 million seniors—including many Trump supporters—are equally out of touch. How long before CNN and other networks start playing clips of a conservative media personality harassing young female campaign volunteers and asking them if they have OnlyFans accounts?
Maybe none of this matters politically, but it certainly doesn't help Republicans as we work to assure suburban families that we are the normal ones.
Yes, Biden's mental and physical decline could sink the Democrats, but a smart political party that cares about winning would pump the brakes on such nonsense and account for Murphy's Law. With the country on the line, we need to stop playing Russian roulette before we blow our brains out. As the New York results show, it's all fun and games until we start losing winnable races.
Chris Wilson is the the CEO of WPA Intelligence.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
