Why Hamas Is a Direct Threat to U.S. Interests | Opinion

In the spring of 1914, Britain' s most senior diplomat wrote "I have not seen such calm waters since I have been in the Foreign Office." Europe was at peace and the long simmering tensions between Austria and Serbia seemed to be of no global significance. Peace exploded into world war that August after a Serbian terrorist assassinated Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, who was the presumptive heir to his empire's throne.

Following the assassination, Austria declared war on Serbia. Germany backed Austria and Russia mobilized its army to defend the Serbs. The Germans launched what they regarded as a preemptive attack on Russia's ally France, and Britain made the ill-fated decision to support France. Two months later, Turkey choose sides and went to war against Russia, its old adversary from the Crimean War. What followed was a catastrophe that cost more than 10,000,000 lives. All sparked by a single death. Eventually, even the geographically removed and staunchly neutral United States was dragged into the conflict.

For those who listen, the rhythms of history often repeat. Last month, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated, "The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades."

Saudi recognition of Israel seemed possible, while the long simmering tensions between Israel and Hamas seemed of little global significance. That peace exploded on Oct. 6, when Hamas terrorists slaughtered more than 1,000 Israeli civilians. Following these massacres, Israel declared war on Hamas and the United States mobilized support for Israel by sending two carrier strike groups to to the region. Hezbollah and Syria have begun firing rockets into Israel and Iran has threatened a preemptive strike on Israel. As the dominos begin to fall, their impact on major regional players like Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will be dramatic. The Hamas-Israel War now has the potential to expand rapidly and severely damage American interests in the Middle East.

Here is how:

For many years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has supported proxy wars in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. It has funded, trained, and armed terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemen's Houthis. It's leaders have repeatedly stated their intention to eliminate both Israel and the American presence in the region. Now, Tehran's revolutionary government has praised the killing of Israeli civilians and promised an "earthquake" if Israel invades Gaza. That invasion is nearly inevitable and the subsequent earthquake will begin with increased attacks on Israel's northern border by Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard units stationed in Syria. Should the United States respond to those attacks with the fleet it has assembled in the Eastern Mediterranean, Iran could very well attempt to disrupt oil flows in the Persian Gulf.

Jordan's ruling Hashemite dynasty is not Palestinian, but some 70 percent of Jordanians are of Palestinian origin. Jordan's peace treaty with Israel remains unpopular with many of these Palestinian-Jordanians and there have already been massive anti-Israeli demonstrations in Amman. Further fighting in Gaza will almost certainly lead to more political instability in Amman. If violence erupts in the occupied West Bank, it could easily spread into Jordan, as happened during the Black September Palestinian uprising in 1970. Should a wider war erupt, the survival of the pro-Western Jordanian monarchy cannot be taken for granted.

Egypt also remains politically and economically fragile. It has a peace treaty with Israel, but the peace is a cold one and the treaty unpopular. It is also worth remembering that Hamas is essentially the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization which began in Egypt, briefly controlled Egypt's government after the 2011 Arab Spring, and still maintains significant public support in Egypt. Egypt's current government has sought to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood and has no desire to allow thousands of Hamas sympathizers into the country from Gaza.

Perhaps even more troubling, ISIS continues to have a presence in the Sinai where it has waged a decade-long guerrilla war against the government in Cairo. Both the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS will exploit the fighting in Gaza to destabilize Egypt. Instability in Egypt could in turn greatly increase the refugee problems facing Europe, where anti-immigrant sentiment is already fueling a shift to the nationalist, populist right.

The Saudi government cannot ignore widespread public sympathy for Palestine in Saudi Arabia and across the Islamic world. King Faisal initially sought to avoid Saudi involvement in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Yet when faced with mounting pressures at home and abroad to show solidarity with the Arab cause, he eventually initiated an oil embargo that devastated Western economies. There is currently no indication that the Saudis are planning an oil embargo, but they may not have to.

In its efforts to improve relations with Iran and keep gasoline prices low, the Biden Administration has relaxed enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. That policy is now likely to change with the result being less Iranian oil available. At the same time the administration has run down America's strategic petroleum reserve to a 40-year low. We can expect gasoline prices at the pump to rise, unless the Saudis increase production to compensate for reduced Iranian supplies.

Hamas is a designated terrorist organization that has maintained its rule through violence and serious human rights abuses. Israel now sees Hamas as an existential threat that must be eliminated once and for all. The question for the West is how to prevent this conflict from destabilizing pro-Western governments in the region.

The answer is twofold. First, allow Israel to eliminate Hamas as quickly and decisively as possible. The organization has made clear that it means what it says about the destroying Israel. Thus, there can be no meaningful peace process and no favorable future for Palestine so long a Hamas controls Gaza. Second, the international community must finally create a just and prosperous future for the Palestinian people. Without one, desperation will simply spawn another Hamas. What that future might look like will depend on how the Hamas-Israel War ends.

David H. Rundell is a former chief of mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the author of Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads. Ambassador Michael Gfoeller is a former political advisor to the U.S. Central Command. He served for 15 years in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.