Will Saudi Prince MBS Become Biden Partner in Containing Mideast Conflict?

U.S. officials are concerned that Sunday's Houthi attacks in the Red Sea could lead to escalation of the Israel-Hamas war—but they also see a possible plus: that the growing instability will propel the Saudi government to become even more involved, building pressure from the Arab states against Hamas and its affiliates.

Multiple U.S. officials tell Newsweek that Washington hopes that because the Red Sea attacks originated from the Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabian leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman might work to unite a moderate coalition to pressure Iran-backed groups and work jointly with the United States against Hamas.

The sanguine mood at the prospect of a bigger Saudi role in the widening Middle East conflict shows just how much the Biden administration's approach to Saudi Arabia has changed since Joe Biden promised on the campaign trail in 2019 to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for its murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018, as well as for the Kingdom's role in 9/11 and its atrocious human rights record. In 2021 he promised to make the country a "pariah" state. Yet he visited the country in July 2022 and met with the Crown Prince. Under the Biden administration, the U.S. has been trying to broker normalized relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel and has more recently enlisted Saudi help in the Hamas war, especially to prevent the conflict from expanding.

But Saudi Arabia has also been at war with the Houthis since March 2015, when it launched airstrikes and a ground campaign on Yemen's northwestern border area. In its war, the Saudis have been accused of waging a brutal and indiscriminate campaign against civilians and civilian infrastructure, one that resulted in the death of as many as 370,000 civilians over six years, the displacement of millions, and the creation of famine conditions in the country.

Soon after taking office, President Biden announced that the U.S. would end support for Saudi Arabia's war. (The U.S. military had previously provided aerial refueling, maintenance and targeting support to the Saudis, as well as special operations on the ground.) A ceasefire of sorts was negotiated in April 2022 and up until the Hamas attack on October 7, Saudi and Houthi representatives were negotiating an end to fighting.

"Turning Saudi Arabia into a front-line state, as the moderate partner with both Israel and the United States, might be what is necessary to find a permanent Palestinian solution," says a Washington insider and advisor to the Biden administration, expressing optimism for the future. Though Saudi Arabia has few contacts with Hamas and poor relations with the Palestinians, the hope is that Riyadh could change all of that with a pledge to finance much of the reconstruction of Gaza.

"Saudi Arabia wants to see Hamas defeated, wants to see a more moderate political player in Gaza," says one senior U.S. intelligence official who is not authorized to speak on the record and was granted anonymity. "Since Saudi Arabia is already involved in efforts to find a peace in Yemen, combining this goal with further isolation of Iran could elevate the country to the dominant regional player."

In a call with the Saudi Foreign Minister just before Thanksgiving, Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed preventing further spread of the conflict and "welcomed" the Saudi efforts to "secure a durable peace agreement in Yemen," according to a State Department readout.

On Sunday, a U.S. Navy destroyer and multiple commercial ships came under attack by drones and missiles originating in Houthi controlled areas of Yemen. In a statement on X (formerly Twitter), Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea said the group attacked "two Israeli ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait."

He vowed to "continue to prevent Israeli ships from navigating the Red and Arab Seas until the Israeli aggression against our steadfast brothers in the Gaza Strip stops."

The latest attacks in the Red Sea are in addition to 74 attacks on U.S. and Operation Inherent Resolve anti-ISIS coalition forces in Syria and Iraq that have taken place since October 17.

Though the Arab states have spoken out against the war and Israel, they have been mostly silent on the Houthi and Iran-backed militia attacks on U.S. and coalition forces, fearing escalation of the conflict with Iran and, according to U.S. intelligence, fearing public unrest. The majority of the Arab "street" is with Hamas.

There is also a concern that the Hamas war will spill over to increased terror attacks in the Arab world. "We are already seeing grumblings in Arab capitals with regard to domestic support for Hamas, as well as fear that attacks on U.S. forces and Israeli assets will soon expand to terror attacks in the Middle East in general," says the senior U.S. intelligence official.

On Friday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his counterparts from Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain where he tried to calm the Arab states about the war, focusing them on humanitarian aid and the future of Gaza. Before boarding his plane to return to Washington, Blinken said he talked about "what happens the day after in Gaza and how we can get on the path to a just, lasting and secure peace for Israelis and Palestinians--in fact, for everyone in the region."

Mohammed bin Salman has fervently condemned Israel and called for "an immediate halt to Israeli military operation in Gaza." Last week the Saudi Crown Prince called for a ban on arms imports to Israel, clearly focusing his displeasure on the United States, Israel's largest external supplier.

The administration has pulled ever closer to Riyadh since Biden fist-bumped the Crown Prince at a meeting last year. According to sources in Washington, the Biden administration was optimistic about normalization of Israel-Saudi relations before the Hamas attack on October 7, a Trump-style deal that it was trying to broker. Such a deal, multiple officials say, could have tempered Saudi support for the Palestinian national movement. Now any short-term prospects are zero.

"Engaging Saudi Arabia to try to reign in the Houthis might be an avenue of common cause with Washington and Israel," the senior U.S. intelligence official says. Many in the administration believe that Riyadh could restore its reputation by playing a larger role in preventing escalation or expansion of the conflict, or in anchoring a moderate Arab stance that would lead to a long-term solution for Gaza, says the official.

Bloomberg reported last week that Saudi Arabia has already offered increased economic cooperation to Iran if it would help to stop its regional proxies from turning the Israel-Hamas war into a wider conflict.