Avdiivka Has Fallen

Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from Avdiivka, the country's military has announced.

Officials ordered the complete withdrawal of forces from the key eastern town just before dawn on Saturday after months of heavy fighting with Russian forces.

General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine's top military commander, who has been in command for a matter of days following the removal of his predecessor Valery Zaluzhny, said in a statement on Facebook: "Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines."

The Context

Fierce fighting has been taking place in the area for several months. Russian forces have been attempting to advance on the Donetsk town, which once had a population of approximately 30,000 people, since October.

Vladimir Putin's men managed to surround the embattled town on three sides, leaving limited resupply routes for the Ukrainian troops stationed in the area. Capturing Avdiivka has been one of the Russian military's key objectives.

Newsweek has reached out to Russia and Ukraine's defense ministries for comment via email.

What We Know

"In a difficult battlefield situation, when only ruins and a pile of broken bricks remain from the fortification, our priority is to save the soldiers' lives," Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of Ukraine's southeastern sector, said on Telegram.

Syrsky said in his statement: "Our soldiers performed their military duty with dignity, did everything possible to destroy the best Russian military units, inflicted significant losses on the enemy in terms of manpower and equipment. We are taking measures to stabilize the situation and maintain our positions. The life of military personnel is the highest value"

At present, there has been no report of comment from the Kremlin regarding the withdrawal.

Views

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the right decision was taken to preserve military lives, according to a report by the BBC.

Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the army's commander of the Avdiivka area, said: "In a situation where the enemy is advancing over the corpses of his own soldiers with a 10-to-1 advantage in shells, under constant bombardment, this is the only correct decision."

What's Next?

With capturing Avdiivka being a key goal for the Kremlin, the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces will likely be touted as a major win by Russia.

"Avdiivka is a very important strong point in the Ukrainian system of defense. Taking control of Avdiivka might create an opening for Russia," said Mykola Bielieskov, military analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Ukraine, according to The New York Times.

But he added that Russian forces did not have enough reserves and equipment and were not likely to be able to move beyond Avdiivka quickly.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a February 16 assessment that the claw back from Ukraine "does not offer avenues for operationally significant advances" for Moscow's forces.

However, the ISW said Russia is likely complicate or prevent the Ukrainian withdrawal "in hopes of inflicting operationally significant losses on Ukrainian forces in the area."

"Further Russian gains within Avdiivka aimed at complicating the Ukrainian withdrawal and Ukrainian counterattacks covering withdrawing Ukrainian forces will likely result in further Russian losses," the ISW added. "Russian forces would likely struggle to advance west of Avdiivka towards secondary prepared positions to which Ukrainian forces are withdrawing and would likely suffer considerable losses if they decided to frontally attack these Ukrainian positions across open fields."

The withdrawal comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed security pacts with France and Germany this week. Earlier this month, the European Union agreed on an additional $54 billion of funding for the war effort.

Earlier this week, the Senate passed a foreign aid package, including $60 billion for Ukraine. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson is refusing a vote in the lower chamber without added measures to tackle migration across the southern U.S. border.

In a transcript seen by Newsweek, John Kirby, White House national security council spokesperson, said: "Avdiivka is at risk of falling into Russian control. In very large part, this is happening because the Ukrainian forces on the ground are running out of artillery ammunition.

"The cost of inaction by the Congress is stark. And it's being born on the shoulders of Ukrainian soldiers," Kirby added. "We need Congress to pass the national security supplemental bill without further delay. If House Republicans do not act soon, what is happening in Avdiivka right now could very well happen elsewhere along that front."

Updated on 02/19/24 at 7:57 a.m. ET with additional detail of military analyst's comment