Russian forces are continuing to edge forwards on the battlefield outside of Avdiivka, the eastern Ukrainian fortress city that fell to Moscow's units in February after almost two years of tough fighting.
The capture of Avdiivka—which has been partially blamed on the sudden constriction of Western military aid, especially American—was a significant breakthrough for the Kremlin, secured just before the March presidential election and ejecting the Ukrainian garrison that since 2014 has fought against Russian efforts to dismember its neighbor.
Kyiv's forces have since been trying to stabilize the frontline in the eastern Donetsk Oblast, fighting Russian troops in the rural regions to Avdiivka's west.
But in recent days, the Ukrainian Deep State Telegram channel has reported significant progress for Russian attackers in the settlement of Ocheretyne, some 10 miles northwest of Avdiivka. Russian troops appear to have made what the channel described as a "breakthrough" in the Ukrainian front there.
Newsweek cannot independently verify the reports and has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries by email to request comment.
"Pandora's Box is open," Deep State wrote, as Russian forces "continue to gain a foothold" in both in Ocheretyne and Novobakhmutivka to its immediate south. Deep State also reported fierce fighting in nearby Novokalynovo, Berdychi, and Semenivka, and updated its real-time battlefield map to reflect the most recent advances.
Though Ukrainian forces have met the offensives, "the forces are not equal," Deep State wrote. The Russians "outnumber the Defense Forces in the infantry. This is not to mention the anti-aircraft guns, artillery and equipment."
The Russian success in Ocheretyne appears part of a wider effort to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote this week. "Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a wide penetration of Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, but their ability to do so will likely be blunted by the arrival of U.S. and other Western aid to the frontline," it said.
A three-pronged effort is made up of drives towards Berdychi, Ocheretyne, and Novokalynove, ISW said.
"Russian offensive operations in these three areas north and northwest of Avdiivka have succeeded in creating three small salients along a frontline that is about seven kilometers [4.3 miles] long, but each of these three salients is currently too narrow in isolation to serve as meaningful launch points for further ground offensives that would accomplish a broad encirclement of the general area west of Avdiivka."
"The force composition, density, and general battlefield geometry of this area suggest that Russian forces currently hope to combine the pushes from all three salients to create a wider breach along the Berdychi-Novokalynove line."
Deep State said the Ocheretyne situation "revealed a number of problems" in the organization and professionalism of the defending Ukrainian forces in the area.
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