Did US Ally Make 'Secret Agreement' With China? What We Know

China says the Philippines is neglecting its side of a behind-the-scenes bargain struck under the previous administration, complicating a territorial dispute in the South China Sea that has the potential to draw in Philippine ally the U.S.

But one analyst says China is misinterpreting—or mispresenting—the terms of this unofficial arrangement even as it disregards its own commitments under international maritime law.

A former spokesperson for Rodrigo Duterte, who served as the Philippine president from 2016-2022, claimed Duterte had made a "gentlemen's agreement" with China not to reinforce the BRP Sierra Madre, a Philippine warship grounded at contested Second Thomas Shoal to stake the country's claim, and eventually converted into military outpost.

In exchange, China allegedly agreed to maintain the status quo in waters around the Southeast Asian country.

China claims nearly all of the South China Sea as its territory, including the internationally recognized exclusive economic zones of the Philippines and several other neighbors.

The U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty ally has pushed back under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., prompting China to respond more forcefully, with China Coast Guard run-ins with Manila's supply convoys destined for Second Thomas Shoal twice resulting in Philippine injuries last month.

Marcos last week denied any knowledge of such an arrangement when he took office. He said he was "horrified" to hear that "we have compromised, through a secret agreement, the territory, the sovereignty, and the sovereign rights of the Philippines."

China has repeatedly accused the Philippines of going back on its word, saying the country had pledged not to deliver construction supplies to beef up the rusting warship and to eventually tow it.

The U.S. State Department and Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs didn't immediately respond to written requests for comment.

"My sense is, there was really no 'gentlemen's agreement' not to bring construction materials to reinforce BRP Sierra Madre," Jeffrey Ordaniel, associate professor at Tokyo International University and senior researcher with the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum think tank, told Newsweek.

"Duterte said what he agreed to was maintaining the status quo to maintain the peace. The BRP Sierra Madre has been beached on Second Thomas Shoal since 1999," he added.

Ordaniel said China is either misinterpreting or altering the statement the former president made during his meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Reinforcing the vessel to keep it from falling apart is, in fact, "maintaining the status quo," the researcher said.

"If China is interested in ensuring commitments and agreements were followed through, maybe start with the 1982 UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), which Beijing signed; China's 1995 commitment, on record, that Mischief Reef structures were just shelters for fishermen; and Xi's 2015 statement, on record, not to militarize reclaimed features in the South China Sea, among many others."

He went on to point out there is no record of the "gentlemen's agreement," and as such it is not legally binding.

Asked about the alleged arrangement, a Chinese Embassy in the Philippines spokesperson told Newsweek that the two countries had earlier this year agreed to a "new model" for managing the situation at Second Thomas Shoal, following "rounds of serious communications with the Philippine military."

"Regrettably, only one round of resupply mission was carried out within the realm of these understandings and arrangements before they were unilaterally abandoned by the Philippine side for no good reason," he said.

It's unclear at this point what this "new model" involves or when it was drawn up.

Last month, Marcos met with President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a first-ever summit for the three countries. The South China Sea situation featured prominently in the talks, with Biden reaffirming the U.S.-Philippine defense treaty covered the entire Pacific region.