The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been predicted to be "extremely active," according to Colorado State University (CSU) meteorologists.
The meteorologists' predictions forecast that there will be 23 named storms in 2024, with 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. It's the highest number of hurricanes the meteorologists have predicted in their 41-year history of publishing the outlooks in April.
Prior to this year, the highest number of predicted hurricanes made by the CSU team was for nine hurricanes in 1995, according to an Axios report.
Record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are cited as the primary reason behind the forecast, CSU said. In addition to above-average ocean temperatures, El Niño is expected to transition into La Niña by this summer or fall.
El Niño and La Niña are two climate patterns that greatly impact Earth's weather. La Niña recently culminated last spring, ending a multiyear period in which the pattern influenced the weather.
El Niño started in June, but recent forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anticipate that there is a 79 percent chance that it will transition into El Niño-Southern Oscillation Neutral by April to June. Then, there's a 55 percent chance it will transition to La Niña conditions in June-August.
"Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions," the CSU report said. "Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification."
CSU graduate research assistant Nick Mesa told Newsweek that meteorologists expect an increased chance of landfall along the entire U.S. coastline during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
"The combination of record warm temperatures and the transition to La Niña during peak hurricane season provides a very conducive environment for storms to develop and intensify that we haven't really seen before," Mesa said.
CSU will also publish forecasts in June, July, and August. The margin of error in those forecasts is expected to decrease as the season gets underway.
"This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook," the statement said. "We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."
In February, AccuWeather meteorologists raised the alarm about an "explosive" hurricane season that could put certain areas of the United States at a higher risk based on new predictions. According to AccuWeather's forecast, Texas, Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina faced a higher risk of direct impacts from tropical systems this year. Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana had normal risks.
Update 4/4/24, 11:29 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 4/4/24, 12:33 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Nick Mesa.
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Anna Skinner is a Newsweek senior reporter based in Indianapolis. Her focus is reporting on the climate, environment and weather ... Read more
