Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump among previous voters ahead of the presidential election, a new poll has revealed.
According to a Public Opinion Strategies poll for NBC News, the Democratic incumbent is ahead of his Republican challenger by 9 points among people who voted in the 2020 general election and 2022 mid-term elections.
The poll also found that when third-party candidates are included in the race, in a five-way ballot with Biden, Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West, 39 percent would vote for Biden, while 37 percent would vote for Trump.
However, the poll also found that 46 percent of overall respondents would vote for Trump in the presidential election, while 44 percent would vote for Biden when only offered the choice of these two candidates.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between April 12 and April 16. The margin of error is +/- 3.10 percent.
The Context
In March, it was confirmed that Biden and Trump will face off against each other in November, with both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination, teeing up a 2020 White House rematch.
Since then, a number of polls have sought to predict the result of the presidential election. Some have suggested Biden is in the lead while others have predicted Trump will be the victor. In general, though, the polls show the candidates are neck-and-neck and with seven months to go until voters go to the polls, things are likely to change.
What We Know
The polling of actual voters suggests that the most engaged voters support Biden which could cause problems for Trump, NBC correspondent Steve Kornacki explained.
He said that it was bad to rely on these kinds of voters as they may not turn out to vote in the election, particularly as the poll found that 64 percent of respondents are "very interested" in the election, down from 77 percent in 2020.
WATCH: The share of voters who say they have high interest in the 2024 election has hit a 20-year low at this point in a presidential race, according to the latest national NBC News poll.@stevekornacki explains how that could impact the race. pic.twitter.com/EvvHSiv0WX
— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) April 22, 2024
Trump's two-point lead also shows his lead declining from his 5-point advantage in January, 47 percent to 42 percent.
Meanwhile, Trump is leading among men by 53 percent to 37 percent. He also has more support from white voters (54 percent to 37 percent) and white voters without college degrees (65 percent to 25 percent).
Biden, on the other hand, has more support from Black voters (71 percent to 13 percent), and women (50 percent to 39 percent.)
Views
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, told NBC News that: "Americans don't agree on much these days, but nothing unites the country more than voters' desire to tune this election out."
Newsweek reached out to Trump and Biden's campaigns via email for comment.
What's Next?
Until the presidential election takes place in November, speculation will continue regarding who will win.
Update 04/22/24, 7:37 a.m. ET: This story was updated with additional information and background.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Kate Plummer is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics and national affairs, and ... Read more
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