Larry Hogan's Chances of Flipping Maryland Senate Seat, According to Polls

Former GOP Governor Larry Hogan is making a play for Maryland's Senate seat in November, but a new poll suggests his Democratic rivals may be gaining ground on him.

Hogan served eight years as a popular Republican governor in Maryland, despite the state's Democratic lean. The state backed President Joe Biden by 33 points in 2020, and he is expected to easily win it again in November. But Republicans are banking on Hogan making the race more competitive than expected as the Democratic incumbent, Senator Ben Cardin, is vacating his seat at the end of the year.

The Republican has led several early polls of the race, but a new one from Emerson College released on Thursday suggests that the two leading Democrats in the race are gaining ground. While Hogan is viewed as the frontrunner in the Republican primary, Representative David Trone and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are both vying to become the Democratic nominee.

Both held a lead over Hogan in the Emerson poll.

Alsobrooks held a lead of about 10 points with 48 percent of voters saying they would support her compared to 38 percent who would back Hogan in a head-to-head matchup between the two. About 14 percent were undecided.

Trone held a slightly larger lead in the general, as 49 percent of respondents said they would support him, while just under 38 percent said they would vote for Hogan. About 14 percent said they were undecided.

In the Democratic primary, Alsobrooks held a one-point lead over Trone, though the survey remained in the margin of error. Forty-two percent of respondents said they would support her, while 41 percent said they would back Trone.

The poll was conducted from May 6 to 8, 2024, among 1,115 registered voters in Maryland. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Among Democrats, the sample was 462 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

A spokesperson for the Trone campaign told Newsweek the campaign "always knew that this race would tighten as we got closer to election day, but we are confident that we're on track to win on election night.

"Despite being the underdog since day one of this campaign, David Trone is currently winning—leading his opponent among those who have already voted—and even his opponent's polls show David in the best position to beat Larry Hogan," the statement said.

It continues, "But we are not taking anything for granted and will spend the next five days working tirelessly to share David's message of putting people over politics and elect a senator with a proven track record of delivering results for Maryland families."

Newsweek has also reached out to the Alsobrooks and Hogan campaigns for comment via email.

What Have Other Polls Said?

Other independent polls, however, have found Hogan with a lead over Democrats.

A poll conducted by The Baltimore Sun, the University of Baltimore and WBFF in April found Hogan with large leads over Democrats in the race. He led Alsobrooks 54-36 and Trone by 53-40, according to the poll that surveyed 1,292 likely voters from April 7 to 10.

A poll from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement found Hogan leading Alsobrooks 50-36 and Trone 49-37. That poll was conducted from March 5 to 12 among 1,004 registered voters.

The Cook Political Report, which monitors elections across the country, classifies the race as "Likely Democratic," meaning it is "not considered competitive at this point," but has "the potential to become engaged."

Update 5/9/2024 1:58 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from a spokesperson for the David Trone campaign.