NATO Ally Plans 600 Bunkers to Stop Russian Invasion in the 'First Hour'

On NATO's borders with Russia, front-line states are already preparing for the next war with Moscow.

In January, the defense ministers of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia agreed to a new plan to build an extensive network of fortifications intended to deter and defeat the kind of Russian incursion long feared in northeastern Europe.

Given their country's 210 miles of border with Russia—much of it considered near-impassable thanks to extensive forests and wetlands—Estonian officials said the government is planning some 600 bunkers they hope will prevent a hypothetical invasion and occupation by Moscow.

"The war in Ukraine has shown that taking back already conquered territories is extremely difficult and comes at great cost of human lives, time and material resources," Susan Lilleväli, the undersecretary for defense readiness at the Estonian Defense Ministry, said. She spoke about the 60 million euro ($64.7 million) project during a Thursday briefing with journalists.

"In addition to equipment, ammunition and manpower, we need physical installations to defend our countries efficiently," Lilleväli said.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email for comment.

The First Hour

The small Baltic states have long been considered the most likely Russian targets should President Vladimir Putin be bold enough to launch an attack on NATO. If successful, Russian units might be expected to overrun the three small nations within days.

NATO's multinational Enhanced Forward Presence battalions—deployed on a rotating basis to the Baltic states after Putin's 2014 annexation of Crimea—were, until the alliance's Madrid summit in 2023, seen as a "trip-wire" force, designed to draw allied nations into the conflict rather than stop a Russian invasion force.

Baltic civilian and military leaders have railed against their status as a NATO trip wire. Russia's devastating invasion and occupation of swaths of Ukraine in 2022 precipitated a strategic shift for the alliance, as Baltic states looked at the horrors inflicted on Ukrainians in Mariupol, in suburban Kyiv, and elsewhere.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said in 2022 that her nation would be "wiped off the map" by invading Russian forces under the NATO trip-wire plan.

The new Baltic defensive line is aligned with NATO's updated "forward defense posture and deterrence by denial" approach, Lilleväli told reporters on Thursday, "with the aim of defending every inch of allied territory at all times."

"These installations serve, first, the purpose of avoiding military conflict in our region, as they could potentially change the enemy's calculus," Lilleväli said. "Counter-mobility and fortification measures have played a significant role in wars in our region in history, for example in Finland, and as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated they are perfectly valid also in this century."

She continued: "The installations should deny the enemy the possibility to advance rapidly in the territory of Baltic countries and in case of military incursions stop the enemy's advance already at our borders."

Coordination with Latvia and Lithuania is required to "avoid leaving any loopholes, as the security situation in our region does not show any signs of improvement at this point," Lilleväli said.

Lithuanian planners will have a particular focus on the Suwałki Gap. This thin strip of land runs between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, occupation of which would isolate the Baltic states from Poland and their other European allies to the west.

Estonia's fortifications will be grouped around the border crossing points of Narva in the north and Võru in the south. Lake Peipus, which forms much of the border with Russia, gives the Estonians a formidable defensive barrier. The overall intention, Lilleväli said, is ensuring readiness "to fight the enemy from the first meter and first hour."

Russia's ground forces have been badly mauled in Ukraine. The units intended to lead any future invasion of the Baltic states are among those that have suffered massive casualties, up to 40 percent in some cases, European officials previously told Newsweek.

Russia's military is degraded, but it is more experienced. Moscow still poses a major threat, NATO leaders have repeatedly warned, but will need some time to reconstitute.

"We have seen different estimates how quickly Russia can rebuild its military, and we need to use this time wisely," Lilleväli said. "We've come to the conclusion that the time to make all the necessary preparations is now."

Hunkering Down

Estonian officials have so far planned the 600 bunkers. These will be supplied via nearby stockpiles of equipment and ammunition. Most, according to mock-ups shared with Newsweek, will be cuboid concrete "cellars" built into the ground with a partially covered firing trench running perpendicular to the entrance.

Prototypes are being constructed, with testing set to start sometime this year. Estonia wants the first bunkers installed starting in early 2025.

"It's basically a cellar that is built underground," reserves Lieutenant Colonel Kaido Tiitus, an adviser to Lilleväli, explained. The bunkers will be around 35 square meters (377 square feet) and designed to hold 10 troops each, plus all equipment and gear. They will be designed for soldiers to "live in" for periods and to "provide protection against the enemy's artillery shells," Tiitus said.

"Strongholds" will be made up of several smaller bunkers grouped together. In the event of war, explosive devices, other obstacles and electronic sensors would likely be used to support defensive operations. "All necessary means to fight," Tiitus said.

"The main lesson learned is that we need to find ways to stop, especially, the advance of the Russian armored units, because if we let them run we might be soon too late to protect all the countries," Tiitus said. "That's why we need to start it already from the beginning, from the edge of our borders."

Lilleväli said: "When we let them in too far, we are facing their defensive lines," like the Ukrainians now engaged in grinding attritional warfare as they try to seize back the south and east of their country.

All NATO nations have been studying the performance of the Russian military in Ukraine, seeking valuable information on the strengths and weaknesses of Moscow's units. Estonia's bunker network will take this into account, Tiitus said.

"Their usual artillery ammunition for that is either 120 mm mortars, 122 mm howitzers or 152 mm howitzers," he said. "That means that if we can protect our forces on this task against 152 mm howitzers, that's good enough for us."

He added, "On all the larger calibers—rockets or artillery—we can take the risk.... Those are working not on precise targets but mainly on area targets."