A new interactive map of the U.S. shows which states are growing in population the fastest and which are shrinking the quickest.
The data, which draws on statistics from the State Data Center, a U.S. Census Bureau partner, tracks numbers per state since four years ago. While some states gained many more people in this period, others did not. So why?
Demography expert Dudley Poston, an emeritus professor of sociology at Texas A&M University, told Newsweek that the numbers are "most interesting."
These numbers are calculated from April 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic started. Census data from last year reported that population trends had returned to pre-pandemic norms. This is because the numbers of yearly deaths decreased throughout 2022, while migration reverted to patterns seen before 2020.
Poston said some of the largest population shifts per state occurred between 2022 and 2023. Texas, for example, saw the largest increase between 2022 and 2023, over 470,000.
"I expect Texas will continue to grow, from just over 30 million today, and maybe reach 45, maybe even 50 million by the year 2050," Poston said.
In fact, Texas was not the only fast-growing state in the country. Kaufman County, outside of Dallas, was the "fastest growing county in the entire U.S.," Poston said. The county saw a population change of about 7.5 percent.
The next state to grow the most was Florida, by 370,000, followed by North Carolina and Georgia with gains of around 100,000.
The states that lost the most population were New York, down around 100,000, and California, which lost 75,000.
"Most of the growth or decline in all the states is due to domestic migration, people moving from/to other states. Some states grew, others declined, for many of the same reasons," Poston said. "Here are the main reasons people move: people move from one state to another for jobs, lower cost of housing, lower state taxes, better levels of living. Here Texas and Florida have all the benefits, and California and New York don't."
Read more: How to Get a Mortgage
Texas in particular has very low tax rates, as well as warm weather. Both are factors that people may consider when migrating to another state.
Although it may seem surprising, Poston noted that political climates in each state don't play a huge role in population shifts. If it did, we would see lots of people in conservative states in the South, like Texas, moving to more liberal states such as California and New York, he said. But these states shrank in population the most.
International migrants have provided great benefits to certain states during this period, even those like California that lost a high proportion of its population, Poston said. They do this by offsetting the effects of low birth rates, which is occurring across the U.S.
"Texas and Florida and Arizona, and also California, profited greatly from population growth via international migration. People too often overlook the major contributor to population growth via international migration," Poston said.
He continued: "The migrants take on jobs the local people won't accept. These are the so-called 3D jobs—dirty, dangerous and demeaning. Also, migrants are younger and typically have higher birth rates than the local people. Lots of states in the U.S. now have more deaths than births. International migrants help to set off this demographic imbalance by having more babies than the fertility rates of the nonmigrants."
Birth rates have been falling across the U.S. for some time now, as well as in other parts of the world. This is largely attributed to changes in society, with fewer unintentional births and younger people deciding to have children later in life. Studies have also suggested that the pandemic has increased a feeling of instability among would-be parents.
Read more: How to Buy a House With Bad Credit
However, in 2023, the U.S. gained a total of 1.6 million people, with an overall growth of 0.5 percent, according to the census. It was the largest year for population growth than any year since the pandemic started. This was largely due to immigration.
Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the U.S. population? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Robyn White is a Newsweek Nature Reporter based in London, UK. Her focus is reporting on wildlife, science and the ... Read more
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
