Russian President Vladimir Putin recently made a public gesture intended to punish Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for his inability to achieve the Kremlin's military goals in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW, a U.S.-based think tank, wrote in a Thursday assessment of the war in Ukraine that Putin held a publicized meeting with a known rival of Shoigu as a way of possibly "seeking to reduce" the defense minister's power.
The report from the ISW follows the April arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on bribery charges, which some Western analysts speculated was a warning to Shoigu. Ivanov was widely seen as one of Shoigu's closest allies, and the two men had worked together for many years, including when Ivanov served as deputy prime minister of the Moscow region while Shoigu was the area's governor.
On Thursday, Putin met with Alexei Dyumin, the governor of Russia's Tula Oblast and a known affiliate of the Wagner Group mercenaries. The Kremlin's website recounted the meeting at Putin's presidential estate in Novo-Ogaryovo, noting Dyumin spoke with the leader about his region's efforts to aid Moscow's war in Ukraine. The push includes equipping military units, opening a training center for drone operators and manufacturing weapons.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, former leader of the Wagner Group, publicly criticized Shoigu for months before leading a mutiny against Moscow in June. Prigozhin perished in a plane crash under mysterious circumstances two months later, but Dyumin sided with the Wagner leader before his death. He also reportedly "attempted to facilitate firings" within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and possibly looked to replace Shoigu himself, according to the ISW.
The ISW said Dyumin's meeting in Moscow "appeared to be an attempt to win Putin's favor," while "Putin likely deliberately publicized his meeting with Dyumin" as a possible punishment for the "Shoigu-led MoD for failing to accomplish the Kremlin's military goal."
Newsweek reached out to the Kremlin via email on Friday night for comment.
"The Putin-Dyumin meeting generated a significant amount of discourse within the Russian information space, with numerous milbloggers and political commentators pointing out that the meeting occurred between Ivanov's arrest and the expected government reshuffle" following Tuesday's presidential inauguration, the ISW wrote.
The think tank added that Russian inside sources have speculated that Putin may appoint Dyumin to a role in the defense industry. Perhaps more notable, "the Putin-Dyumin meeting suggests that Putin is likely the responsible decision-maker behind Ivanov's arrest."
David Silbey, associate professor of history at Cornell and director of teaching and learning at Cornell in Washington, told Newsweek for a previous article that he believes the same.
"Putin doesn't sign off on that [arrest] unless he's sending a message to Shoigu, one that reads something along the lines of 'that could have been you,'" Silbey said. "It would not surprise if Shoigu is next or retires suddenly."
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Jon Jackson is an Associate Editor at Newsweek based in New York. His focus is on reporting on the Ukraine ... Read more
