Russia's 'Low Quality' Troops See Spike in Losses: UK

Russian personnel losses in Ukraine have increased by "almost 300 per day," compared to those in 2022, due to Moscow's growing reliant on a "lower quality, high quantity mass army." This comes from the latest intelligence update published by the British Ministry of Defense.

The analysis said that Russia is on track to suffer 500,000 killed and wounded by the beginning of 2025, a figure dwarfing Russian losses in any other conflict since World War II.

Russian troops have spent the past couple of months trying to seize the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, situated in Donetsk Oblast, though they have made only limited gains.

On Friday, the Russians launched one of the biggest aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities since the war began in February 2022, with at least 39 people killed by 120 missiles and 36 drones, according to Kyiv. On Saturday, 10 people were killed and 40 injured by missiles and drones in the Russian city of Belgorod, according to Russian authorities. They said they have shot down dozens of projectiles fired from Ukraine. Newsweek has not been able to verify these casualty figures independently.

In its December 30 update, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said: "During the course of 2023, the average daily number of Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine has risen by almost 300 per day compared to 2022.

"The increase in daily averages, as reported by the Ukrainian authorities, almost certainly reflects the degradation of Russia's forces and its transition to a lower quality, high quantity mass army since the 'partial mobilisation' of reservists in September 2022," the report added. "It will likely take Russia five to ten years to rebuild a cohort of highly trained and experienced military units."

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the mobilization of 300,000 reservists in September 2022. This was to make up for heavy losses suffered by the regular military during the initial invasion of Ukraine.

However, the British update said that Russia is on track to suffer 500,000 casualties, adding: "If casualties continue at the current rate through the next year, by 2025 Russia will have sustained over half a million personnel killed and wounded over three years of war. This is compared to the Soviet Union's 70,000 casualties in the nine-year Soviet-Afghan War."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment by email.

Separately on Friday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington D.C.-based think tank, said that heavy Russian aerial attack on Ukraine is likely to continue, though with limited impact.

The ISW said: "Russian forces will likely conduct intensified strikes in the coming days to coincide with the New Year Holiday as they did last year in an effort to degrade Ukrainian morale.

"Russian forces may still decide to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure at scale in the coming months, although ISW still assesses that a Russian effort to break Ukraine's will to fight is very unlikely to succeed," the think tank added.

On Tuesday, Ukraine scored a major success in the Black Sea where it struck and sank the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in the Crimean port of Feodosia, with Russian-language Telegram channel Astra reporting one sailor was killed and another 33 were missing.