Ukraine Maps Show Russian Gains Amid Fears US Aid Too Late

Russian forces continue to maintain momentum on the battlefield in Ukraine as maps show Moscow's latest gains amid concerns about whether an aid package for Kyiv just passed by Congress can thwart Moscow's momentum in time.

The X account War Mapper, which provides updates about the state of the front line in Ukraine, posted graphics on Friday which showed Russian gains in the Donetsk region over the last 10 days.

One map illustrated how northwest of Avdiivka, the hard-fought for town that was captured by Moscow in February, Russian forces had breached the Ukrainian line at Ocheretyne.

War Mapper said that Russian forces had taken "most of the settlement," advanced in Semenivka and Berdychi, and captured Novomykhailivka, south of Marinka, although it noted Ukrainian gains between Ivanivkse, Klishchiivka and east of Terny.

"(Russia) has secured more territory to the east of Chasiv Yar," War Mapper said, referring to the town that Kyiv warns Vladimir Putin wants captured in time for the May 9 Victory Day commemorations of Moscow's role in defeating Nazi Germany.

Analysts have raised questions about whether Washington's $61 billion bill to inject much-needed ammunition and equipment has been delayed too long, following months of opposition from some House Republicans.

While welcoming the bill, military analyst Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) said on X, formerly Twitter, that the U.S. assistance may help Kyiv fight in 2024 and into 2025 but Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and "it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues."

"Even with increased ammunition deliveries/expenditure, Ukraine might not be able to hold Chasiv Yar and other of these towns/cities," Lee said in the thread, adding that if Russian forces were to capture the town, they face more favorable terrain, "which could lead to an increase in the rate of advance."

"If Chasiv Yar falls, it will also put Ukrainian positions south of the city at risk," he said. "This is true for further Russian advances elsewhere. The delays in aid/mobilization have been costly."

Meanwhile, in analysis for Carnegie Endowment for World Peace, Eugene Rumer, director of the U.S. think tank's Russia and Eurasia program, said Ukraine "has no good options, even with the latest aid package."

"Many military analysts have already come to that conclusion privately but are unwilling to voice that sentiment," he wrote in the commentary published Thursday, adding that the U.S. deal "is almost certainly the last package of such magnitude, regardless of who gets elected as the next U.S. president."

He said that at NATO's upcoming summit in Washington, the alliance should not argue about Kyiv's path to membership but rather put in place commitments, "including more and better capabilities to defend and push back against the Russian onslaught and long-range precision strike weapons to continue and expand strikes deep inside Russia."

However, Congress passing the $61 billion package has buoyed optimism in Ukraine and among its advocates.

"Although we don't know the actual delivery timelines, some reports indicate that the first delivery will be as soon as this week," Marianna Tretiak, president of the American Coalition for Ukraine told Newsweek in a statement on Thursday.

"We are confident that the local Ukrainian military administration will disperse the aid quickly, in a matter of days, as the situation on the front lines is dire," she said. "In recent weeks, rationing has even been applied to civilian defense systems, resulting in more damage to residential areas and more deaths and injuries among the civilian population."