Russia enjoys a "significant advantage" in troops and equipment on the front line where it is trying to seize the initiative, Ukraine's commander-in-chief has said.
Since Russia captured the Donetsk town of Avdiivka in February, Moscow's troops have momentum, with Ukraine facing shortages of ammunition and manpower.
Kyiv has said that Vladimir Putin wants to capture nearby Chasiv Yar before Victory Day on May 9, which could be a springboard for further advances to the cities of Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Oleksandr Syrsky, who has been in post since February, described the situation at the front line on Sunday as Kyiv awaits an injection of U.S. assistance after Congress passed a $61 billion bill.
"The situation at the front has worsened," Syrsky said in a Telegram post, according to a translation, as he described how Russia is "trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line.
"The enemy has focused its main efforts on several directions, creating a significant advantage in forces and means," Syrsky wrote.
"They are actively attacking along the entire front line and in some directions they have had tactical successes," the post read, outlining how to preserve personnel, Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from the northwest and west of Avdiivka.
Describing Chasiv Yar and the village of Ivanivske to its northeast as the "hottest spots" on that part of the front, Syrsky also warned how "in the Luhansk region, the enemy is trying to take advantage of its advantage in air, missiles and the number of artillery ammunition."
However, the commander did note that his forces were committing elements of brigades in the Avdiivka direction that have been rested and reconstituted.
In assessing Syrsky's comments, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Sunday that these reinforcements "will likely allow Ukrainian forces to slow Russian tactical gains and possibly stabilize the front."
Meanwhile, the think tank said that, despite Ukrainian forces facing a one-to-three manpower disadvantage northwest of Avdiivka, they have still stopped more than a division's worth of Russian combat power from making the types of expected advances given Moscow's superior numbers.
However, military analysts have sounded the alarm about recent Russian gains on the battlefield as Ukraine faces a lack of ammunition, troops and fortifications.
Pasi Paroinen, who posts on X, formerly Twitter, about the war using maps and open source intelligence, noted how Russian forces have achieved successes in the Avdiivka region, which started with the unexpected penetration of Ocheretyne village on April 22.
"While the capture of Ocheretyne may have been opportunistic, the Russians were certainly ready to exploit it and its capture opens variety of new tactical opportunities," Paroinen wrote.
This has been followed by Russian forces "rapidly taking Novobakhmutivka and Soloviove and securing the rest of Berdychi in quick order."
The Russian Defense Ministry said its forces had captured Novobakhmutivka, although this has not been confirmed by the Ukrainian General Staff, which Newsweek has contacted for comment.
While Ukraine has been constructing new defensive lines following the fall of Avdiivka, "these lines are still very much under construction and likely lack many necessary elements for successful defense," Paroinen wrote, warning that the breach at Ocheretyne "could allow the Russians to prematurely enter the first defensive line."
Meanwhile, defense analyst Konrad Muzyka from Rochan Consulting said in an X thread on Monday that the situation for Ukraine on the front "looks very bad and is not expected to improve in the coming weeks."
The lack of ammunition for Kyiv's forces is so acute that there are units whose expenditure has decreased by up to 90 percent compared to the summer of 2023.
"Artillery fire is limited to a minimum and often must be authorized by brigade commanders," Muzyka wrote, according to a translation from Polish.
"American aid is now crucial because it will help reduce the disproportion between Russian and Ukrainian numbers," Muzyka said, but "we are still talking about reducing asymmetry, not achieving parity."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more
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