A Russian SU-27 that was downed over Crimea on March 28 may have been the victim of friendly fire due to "the lack of situation awareness and coordination" between Moscow's forces according to the latest intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defense.
According to the Ukrainian Navy, the aircraft was mistakenly shot down by Russia's own air defenses, but the Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol, Crimea's biggest city, insisted the incident was caused by a mechanical fault with the pilot surviving.
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 after previously seizing and annexing Crimea, which is recognized by Western powers as Ukrainian territory, in 2014. Since February 2022, Ukraine has repeatedly struck back at targets in Crimea with missile and drones with Sevastopol, home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, one of the most prominent targets.
The latest U.K. intelligence report noted that Ukrainian forces "conducted strikes against targets in Sevastopol and the Black Sea Fleet on 24 March 2024" which it says "almost certainly led to local Russian air defence being at a heightened readiness."
According to the Ukrainian military, its forces damaged two large Russian landing ships in Sevastopol, the Ropucha-class vessels the Yamal and the Azov, as well as port facilities during an attack on March 24. Russian authorities confirmed an attack had taken place and said they had shot down 10 missiles. Satellite images later revealed damage to several buildings in Sevastopol following the incident.
The British intelligence update said there have "been previous unconfirmed reports of similar instances of friendly fire occurring, usually following periods of Ukrainian action against Russian forces." Consequently, "[t]here is a realistic possibility that rather than a technical issue, the increased pressure and tension amongst Russian air defence operators induced by the fear of further Ukrainian action leads to them inadvertently engaging their own pilots and aircraft."
It concluded: "This event, and others if confirmed, likely highlight the lack of situational awareness and coordination between elements of the Russian armed forces, while further demonstrating the second-order impact of Ukrainian actions."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment by email.
Over the past few weeks, Russian troops have continued assaulting Ukrainian positions in a number of areas including around the largely destroyed eastern city of Bakhmut, which was seized in May 2023 following months of brutal fighting. In February, Russian forces secured control of Avdiivka, also in the east.
The Ukrainian military has been suffering from a shell shortage in recent months exacerbated by U.S. aid, the approval of which is getting bogged down in Congress.
Ukraine has been using domestically produced drones to strike targets deep inside Russia in recent weeks, including military sites and oil refineries. On Friday, Kyiv said it destroyed six warplanes and damaged eight others, during an attack on the Morozovsk airfield, in Russia's Rostov region, though this has not been independently confirmed.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more
