Ted Cruz Gets Huge Boost in Texas

Texas Senator Ted Cruz has a big lead over his Democratic rival, Rep. Colin Allred, who is vying to unseat him in November, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by Cygnal, found that Cruz is leading Allred by 45 percent to 36 percent. The poll was carried out on 1,000 likely general election voters in Texas between April 4 and 6.

The Context

In 2018, Cruz beat his Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke by less than three percent to secure re-election to the Senate in a tightly fought contest.

Speaking in February, the Republican senator said he was the Democrats' "number one target" in November, adding: "I will say my race here in Texas is a battleground race."

Currently, the Democrats have a 51-49 advantage in the Senate, including the three Independents who caucus with them, but Republicans are hoping to seize control in November and a Cruz defeat would be a big blow to these plans.

What We Know

The Cygnal poll gave Cruz a nine-point lead over Allred, a former NFL star who currently represents Texas's 32nd congressional district in the House but is hoping to switch to the Senate after November.

This was the same lead the survey found Donald Trump had in the state in a head-to-head match-up against Joe Biden for the presidency. In this scenario, Trump polls 51 percent of the vote against 42 percent for the Democratic incumbent. When third-party White House candidates are included, Trump leads Biden on 46 percent to 37 percent, with eight percent of the vote going to independent Robert F. Kennedy.

In better news for Allred, the survey found the Democratic challenger has a net approval rating of 7.7 versus -1.2 for Cruz, though against the backdrop of much lower recognition.

Some 28 percent of Texan voters have a favorable view of Allred versus 20.4 who had an unfavorable view, with 22.4 percent having "no opinion" and 29.1 percent having never heard of the Democratic challenger.

By contrast, 46.3 percent of the likely general election voters in Texas have a positive view of Cruz against 47.5 percent who view him negatively, with 5.1 percent having no opinion and one percent having never heard of the Senator.

In a statement provided to Newsweek a Cruz campaign spokesperson said: "Senator Cruz has spent his time in the Senate fighting for policies that promote jobs, freedom, and opportunity for Texans. Senator Cruz's legislative work, much of it bipartisan, has had a major impact on the Lone Star State, and we are confident that Texans will choose him to represent them once again in the Senate so he can continue to deliver these crucial victories.

"Senator Cruz will keep working day in and day out, meeting and talking to Texans in every corner of the state to keep Texas, Texas."

Newsweek also contacted a representative of Rep. Allred by email outside of usual business hours. This article will be updated if they decide to comment.

The Cygnal poll contrasts with a National Public Affairs survey of 807 likely Texas voters between February 6 and 8 which found Cruz and Allred tied with 44 percent of the vote each.

Views

Speaking to Fox News host Maria Bartiromo in February, Cruz made it clear he is taking the threat from Allred seriously.

He said: "The Democrats are spending over $100 million. Chuck Schumer has made clear I'm his number one target.

"My last race I won by less than three points because I'm the Democrats' top target," Cruz said. "I'm going to keep fighting for the rule of law, for the Constitution, for the Bill of Rights, and I'm going to keep fighting to secure the border. Even as we see these radicals undermine our safety."

On his campaign website, Allred states: "Texas is facing real challenges, but Ted Cruz can't be bothered with them. The struggles of regular Texans don't interest him."

Update 4/12/24 10:15 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with comment from a Cruz campaign spokesperson.