Ted Cruz Faces Losing His Seat in Texas

Texas Republican Ted Cruz could lose his seat in the Senate, a poll has suggested.

After the National Public Affairs surveyed 807 likely voters, Cruz is neck and neck with his likely Democratic opponent, Congressman Colin Allred. Each candidate is on 44 percent of the vote share; 12 per cent said they were undecided. The polling was conducted between February 6 and February 8, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Newsweek contacted representatives for Cruz by email to comment on this story.

The Context

There have been concerns that Cruz's position in the Senate is vulnerable.

In his 2018 reelection, he beat back a challenge from Democratic Representative Beto O'Rourke by fewer than 3 percentage points.

A February 1 poll from the University of Houston showed that Cruz would win with 48 percent of the vote to Allred's 39 percent, if the two face each other in the next election. In a head-to-head matchup against Sen. Roland Gutierrez, another potential Democratic opponent, he would win 48 percent to 38 percent, according to the survey. The poll surveyed 1,500 Texans between January 11 and 24. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a January survey by Emerson College found Cruz polling at 42 percent among likely voters in a hypothetical matchup with Allred, who had 40 percent support. In a matchup with Gutierrez, 41 percent said they would vote for Cruz and 40 percent for the Democrat.

What We Know

In the presidential election, the National Public Affairs poll also found that 42 percent of those surveyed would vote for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump if an election were held today, while 35 percent would vote for Democratic President Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, Cruz is also being outspent by his opponents. Allred raised more than $4.7 million in the previous three months, with Cruz raising just over $3 million during the same period, according to Federal Election Commission October filings.

Views

The Cook Political Report, which tracks elections across the U.S., rates Texas' Senate race as "likely Republican," meaning it is "not considered competitive at this point" but has the "potential to become engaged."

What's Next?

The last Democrat to represent Texas in the Senate was Bob Kruger in 1993. Whether that changes comes November remains to be seen.

Update 2/16/24, 10:33 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with additional information and background.