Former President Donald Trump has seen his polling lead drop in four out of seven swing states over the last six weeks, and no longer leads President Biden in Pennsylvania or nationally, an average of polls shows.
In what is likely to be a closely fought rematch between the two candidates, the presumptive Republican nominee has had the advantage in the polls in seven key battleground states that are likely to decide who sits in the Oval Office come January 2025. However, an analysis of polls taken roughly 45 days ago versus today by racetothewh.com shows Trump is losing ground.
Trump, who is looking to take back the White House after losing to Biden in 2020, has seen his lead slip the most in the southern states of Georgia and North Carolina. The above chart shows drops of 2.1 and 1.1 percentage points respectively. Trump won North Carolina by the slimmest margin of any of his state victories in 2020, and lost to Biden in Georgia by around less than 12,000 votes.
He has seen smaller drops over the last six weeks in Nevada and Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, his lead has evaporated completely, and Biden is now ahead by 0.2 percentage point.
Biden today has a similarly slight edge—0.4 percentage point on April 18—nationally, having cut into Trump's 2.1-percentage point lead 45 days ago.
In calculating its polling average, racetothewh.com says that its model gives more weight to surveys that include large samples, were released recently and by pollsters that have a strong track record of accuracy. The model corrects for historic partisan bias and gives less weight to polls published by campaigns.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email to comment on this story.
Trump's sliding poll numbers come as his "hush money" trial began this week in New York.
He is the first former U.S. president to face a criminal trial. He has pleaded not guilty to 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in relation to so-called "hush money" he arranged for his former lawyer Michael Cohen to pay adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election to keep secret an alleged affair she and Trump had. Trump has said the case is the result of a "witch hunt" by political opponents.
This trial along with his other legal entanglements could play a major factor in determining who wins the 2024 election. Polls have frequently shown voters could be put off from backing Trump if he is found guilty of a crime before the November election.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 64 percent of registered voters said they considered charges against Trump as at least "somewhat serious," compared to 34 percent who said the charges lacked seriousness. The survey polled 833 registered voters nationwide and online from April 4-8.
Trump has made modest polling gains in Arizona and Michigan in the racetothewh.com analysis, in Arizona and Michigan. Both states were won by Biden four years ago.
Trump can also take comfort in the fact that racetothewh.com currently forecasts that he will win the election with 293 Electoral College votes to Biden's 244, flipping Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin from 2020.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Daniel Orton is an editor on the live news team at Newsweek, based in London, UK. He was previously Video ... Read more
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