Ukraine's advocates had been long warning about the urgency of further Washington aid to fight President Vladimir Putin's aggression. Time is equally of the essence as to whether the $61 billion package agreed by the House of Representatives on Saturday can be deployed quickly enough to stem Russian momentum on the battlefield.
Russian forces have made incremental gains since their capture of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region on February 17 and are bearing down on Chasiv Yar, a settlement 40 miles north, which Kyiv has warned that Putin wants to capture in time for Victory Day on May 9 when Moscow marks its role in the defeat of Nazi Germany.
The U.S. deal passed Saturday delivers a morale boost for Ukrainian forces fending off assaults across the eastern and southern parts of the front but the injection of aid will have to quickly revive a force fighting an enemy with a 10-to-one advantage in artillery fires in some areas.
"This U.S. package will definitely help the Ukrainians, but it doesn't, unfortunately, mean Ukraine will now win this war or win it soon," said Viktor Kovalenko, Ukraine analyst and Ukrainian combat veteran 2014-2015.
"Ukraine, even armed with the $61 billion US aid package, still lacks many needed pre-conditions, including trained and motivated manpower for recapturing its land," he told Newsweek.
"Without mobilization and training more men and an active...fight for recapturing their land, Ukrainians are at risk of wasting this U.S. aid package for air defense and long-range strikes," he said.
There is likely to have been preparatory planning that will speed up delivery once the legislation is signed by President Joe Biden, according to Politico, citing U.S. officials. Pentagon spokesman, Air Force Major-General Patrick Ryder, said there was "a very robust logistics network that enables us to move matériel very quickly," even, "within days."
Some of the U.S. aid, including arms and ammunition, was already packaged in depots in Poland and elsewhere in Europe and ready to be transported, the Financial Times reported.
Bill Keating, a Massachusetts Democratic congressman, told a press conference in Kyiv on Monday that the first batch of U.S. military aid will be delivered "sooner than anyone thinks is possible," the Kyiv Independent reported.
But retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan noted in a Substack post Monday that the full quantity of the U.S. aid will take some time to roll out and "will not come in one big hit."
Meanwhile, there are continued reports of marginal Russian gains. On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry said its troops had captured Novomykhailivka, between Marinka and Vuhledar, although this has not been confirmed by Ukraine's Defense Ministry. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also said Monday that Russian forces had recently advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
Kovalenko said Russia is focusing on minor territorial gains in the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine, one after one, because this strategy has proven effective.
"Putin is aiming to achieve his initial goal to capture all of the eastern Donbas," he said, "with this strategy of slow advance, Russia also achieves the goal of keeping the Ukrainian Armed Forces busy, bleeding, and unable to find a moment to recapture any land."
Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at security firm Global Guardian, said that as Kyiv waits for the aid to arrive, the front by Avdiivka was the most vulnerable.
"Ukraine will likely need to retreat to more defensible ground in the coming weeks. Perhaps it will use the natural water features of the Vovcha River and its large reservoirs," he told Newsweek.
However, Faintuch is confident that the U.S. assistance can get to Ukraine in time. "At this stage, Ukraine can still trade territory for time and neither side is anywhere near achieving their stated aims."
"Both the Russians and Ukrainians need to improve their negotiating hand ahead of the U.S. elections when we could see a major policy inflection point in terms of support.
"Ukraine will try to continue to isolate Crimea and attack Russian oil and industrial infrastructure, as well as supply depots. Russia will continue to try to seize more of the Donbas," he said.
Ukraine and its allies hope that the U.S. aid can plug the gaps, especially as Russian aerial attacks have led some Ukrainian air defense units to run out of interceptor missiles.
On Monday, a bipartisan delegation of U.S. lawmakers met with President Volodymyr Zelensky whose office said they discussed the need for artillery shells, combat aircraft, electronic warfare, and long-range missiles, as well as support for the development of Ukraine's defense industry.
"The artillery shells will help solidify the front, and the air defense systems and munitions will help slow Russia's effective campaign of destroying key infrastructure," said Faintuch. "But Ukraine will still need additional funding bills to resume significant offensive operations and retake lost territory in the future."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more
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