US Tornado Warnings Misunderstood by Half of People in Mid-South

Tornado warnings are widely misunderstood by half of those that live in the mid-southern U.S., new research has found.

Cory Armstrong, a journalist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln's College of Journalism and Mass Communications, conducted research into how effective current weather alerts for extreme weather events are.

An analysis of 679 people living in the Mid-South of the U.S. found that 50 percent of people living across Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi were not able to define a tornado warning accurately. Only 11 percent of people studied could recognize a warning indicating that such a weather event had been sighted.

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The study notes that, in December 2021, Tennessee and Kentucky were hit with a disastrous tornado that caused 57 deaths and hundreds of injuries. The event happened in rural areas, and when most people were sleeping in the evening hours, meaning many did not see or hear warnings. Confusion over these, including the ability to distinguish the difference between "tornado warning" and "tornado watch" forecasts "may have exacerbated the potential casualty count," the study reported. This is why studies like this are important.

It is becoming more important to prepare for severe weather events like tornadoes as they become more common with global warming.

Tornadoes usually form as a result of a supercell storm, a type of severe thunderstorm. These storms are violent systems that circulate from above, usually lasting for an extended period.

Previous studies have found that a warming climate is exacerbating the conditions ideal for extreme storms, meaning ability to identify weather warnings could be becoming more important.

"As a professional communicator, I am fascinated by how individuals receive and respond to various messaging," Armstrong said in a statement. "It is especially interesting with severe weather alerts, because there is a general assumption that everyone knows exactly what they mean and how you should respond. Through this research, we've found that is not necessarily true.

"We've found that many respondents misidentify a warning as a watch, which means conditions are favorable for a tornado," Armstrong added. "The findings indicate that, to reduce overall risk to the public, emergency personnel and disaster communication need to improve their overall messaging."

The study found that an individual's past experience with severe weather, and the geography of where they lived, also played a role in how well they could identify weather warnings. Those who lived in rural areas, and those who had already experienced a tornado, were more likely to prepare following a weather warning.

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"Those who have past experiences with tornadoes reported that they needed fewer than 15 minutes to prepare when a warning was issued, but those without that experience wanted more lead time to prepare," Armstrong said. "It indicates that those who have been in a tornado warning know how to prepare and have a plan to take shelter. Those who have not, as is often the case, are less prepared."

The study calls for the need for better severe weather preparation, particularly as severe weather events become more common.

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