Putin 'Knows He's in the Corner' in Ukraine, Ex-NATO Spy Chief Says

Russian President Vladimir Putin realizes he has put himself in danger with his military gambit in Ukraine, but will double down rather than change course. That's according to Estonia's former foreign intelligence chief.

Mikk Marran, who headed Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service from January 2016 to October 2022, told Newsweek that Russia's war on Ukraine will not end soon given Putin's "obsessive" focus on controlling the country, and the deep revanchism that extends beyond the president through the highest levels of Russia's political elite.

"I can't predict whether we're talking about months or years, but we shouldn't expect that the war ends in the coming weeks," said Marran, who since leaving the intelligence service has served as the CEO of the Estonian State Forest Management Center. "Putin is still very much focused on getting this thing done in Ukraine that he started. But of course, he will fail."

"I think he still thinks that he can outlast the West," Marran said of Putin. "But at the same time, he knows he's in the corner."

Unprecedented Western military assistance to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have failed to stay Moscow's hand. More than a year into the full-scale invasion, intense fighting continues along the 800-mile front line as Russian troops try to seize back momentum and break Ukrainian lines before Kyiv can launch its spring counter-offensive.

There is no prospect of renewed peace talks, with both sides banking on battlefield success.

Russia appears to be settling in for a long war, hoping the uncertainty of a drawn-out conflict with erode Western unity and commitment. Kyiv, meanwhile, is urging its Western backers to do everything possible to ensure a relatively rapid Ukrainian victory.

"I wouldn't say that he will be backing down," Marran said of the Russian leader, who as of last week is now also subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant.

"I think that there will be more troops sent to Ukraine to fight. And I think that he has this messianic vision of himself freeing Ukraine and then reuniting Ukraine with Russia. I think that he's not yet at a point where he would consider pulling out of Ukraine or proposing a solid peace agreement to Ukraine. I think that he will continue pushing."

Western leaders advocating—whether in public or in private—for peace talks, or even Ukrainian territorial or political concessions, are misguided, Marran said. "You can't deal with Russia, with Putin, in a normal way, especially when it comes to Ukraine," he said.

"I think that he's totally obsessed with Ukraine. I'm sure there are sensible people around him, advising him with correct points. But once again, he is obsessed, and I wouldn't say that he would turn back in coming weeks."

Estonia and its Baltic neighbors have long been sounding the alarm about Putin's intentions, pushing back against European economic cooperation with Moscow and urging a more assertive military presence on NATO's eastern flank.

Marran said Western allies have "come a long way in a sense of understanding Putin's motivations and strategy" over the past year. "I was positively surprised that West has been so united. There were some thinking in the beginning that it might end quickly, but right now, I feel that the West is very united, both politically and also when giving military assistance to the Ukrainian army."

"Of course, always there should be more donations or more military equipment and ammunition given to Ukraine. But still, compared to the first days and weeks of the war, I think that the European, the Western, machinery is working quite well. And the leadership of different countries is understanding the situation quite well, that Ukraine is fighting our war, in a sense."

Western leaders maintain that Ukraine alone will decide when and how the war ends, though Kyiv's reliance on NATO weaponry and Western funding means allied capitals have enormous leverage over President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Still, Western officials and politicians have been particularly hesitant over the Crimea question. Kyiv has made clear its intention to liberate the peninsula, which was occupied by Russia's "little green men" in 2014 and subsequently annexed. The seizure of the region is key to Putin's imperial Russian revival, and as his weekend visit to the territory showed, a deeply personal achievement.

A Ukrainian push that imperils Russian control of Crimea, some Western officials fear, could prompt Putin to resort to weapons of mass destruction. Such an escalation would necessitate a NATO response, perhaps even direct strikes on Russian military targets.

Marran said he does not believe Putin's finger is hovering over the nuclear button. "He's a crazy guy, we can't rule out anything," the former intelligence chief said.

"But I would say that this would be really a final card for him to play. And I would say that we are not very close to that final card. I think he gets signals from the United States, I think he gets signals from China, not to do that. I don't see the nuclear card in the picture for the near term."

Despite reports of unease among top Kremlin officials and their powerful oligarch allies, Putin appears to have only strengthened his hold on power over the last 12 months. The Russian elite is dominated by the same nationalistic desires that drive Putin, Marran said, and the West should not expect a sudden change of course even if "the boss" is no longer running the show.

"I think it will stay around," Marran said of the Russian obsession with dominating Ukraine. "I think whoever takes over from Putin will still retain this kind of Putinistic thinking and Putinistic way of ruling the country. I don't see that it will change drastically. But we'll have to wait and see."

In a statement, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Newsweek: "The assertions of Estonian foreign intelligence can hardly be called professional. Most of them are simply wrong. Such a biased position, which is based on erroneous assertions, in many ways contributes to total Russophobia in Estonia and other Baltic states."

Peskov denied any significant opposition to the full-scale invasion within the Russian political and business elite, and the country at large, touting what he said is an "absolutely prevailing consolidation of both the state and society around the decision of the president to hold the special military operation," using the Kremlin's terminology for the attack.

"The time of the special military operation indeed stretched out," Peskov added. "It began as an operation against the Ukrainian regime and continues, in fact, as a war against NATO, with the de facto involvement of many countries of the alliance including the United States."

"This will not prevent the Russian Federation from achieving its intended goals. We must ensure international stability on the continent and the security of the Russian Federation for both current and future generations."