Putin May Be Eyeing Ceasefire With Ukraine After US Election: John Bolton

The U.S. presidential election in November might be the key to ending the Russia-Ukraine war, according to former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton, who told Newsweek that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be waiting to see who wins.

Bolton, former United Nations ambassador who served as security adviser from 2018 to 2019 in ex-President Donald Trump's administration, shared his take on potential paths to end the war that began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, during a phone interview with Newsweek on Wednesday.

The former security adviser said he thinks Kremlin forces will continue to fight for months until after the U.S. presidential election, which will likely feature a rematch between Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden. During the interview, Bolton also dismissed any threats of Russia using nuclear weapons as "bluffs."

"I don't see nuclear weapons used by Russia as a serious possibility at this point," Bolton said. "I think Putin has been bluffing. That's certainly been the evidence the intelligence agencies have come up with. You always look at it carefully, but in actual fact, there's never been any redeployment of Russian nuclear assets that we're aware of. I think the real danger here is Ukraine not having sufficient ammunition and that the war has gridlocked. If anything, there's now more progress on the part of Russia, not extensive but modest gains in territory, and that puts Putin in a strong negotiating position. What he may well do is wait until November and see who wins the election. And if it's Trump—because I think Putin will believe he'll get a better deal from Trump—he may then say, 'Why don't we call a ceasefire along the existing front lines and negotiate from there.'"

Despite a series of recent advancements for Ukrainian forces, which include a string of blows against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Bolton said the war is at a "gridlock" with Putin in a "pretty strong position."

"Ukrainians have done an outstanding job in sinking Black Sea ships, which shows how poor Russia's naval defense capabilities are and that's significant, but the real test is on the ground," Bolton said. "And on the ground, over the past couple of months, that momentum has shifted. Ukraine is pretty much on the defensive along most of the front line."

He said that while Russia "is not making huge advances" over the past two years since the war began, there have been "fairly small gains" of territory on both sides.

"The best you can say is it's gridlock, and I think Putin is satisfied with that, at least they're not withdrawing anymore," Bolton said. "And he's now got eight months, seven months till the election, he may well conclude that it's to his advantage, not to his disadvantage, to wait it out and see who wins in November."

In response to Newsweek asking Bolton whether he sees an end to the war in the near future, he wasn't hopeful that a ceasefire would happen before the U.S. presidential election.

"No, I don't see either side being willing at this point to say it's time to negotiate," Bolton said. "I think Putin is waiting for a time when his position will be stronger than it is now. He may feel that will come as Trump becomes the new president."

Newsweek reached out via email on Wednesday to the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Ukraine Foreign Affairs Ministry for comment.

When asked by Newsweek if the U.S. should do more for Ukraine and be more involved in the war, Bolton called out members of Congress, saying that the first step would be to quickly pass an aid package.

"I think it's in our national interest to defeat the Russian aggression and I think certainly, job one is pass this Ukrainian aid that's been held up in Congress," Bolton said, adding that he hopes to see a vote in the House after Easter.

However, the former ambassador isn't convinced that aid for Ukraine would change whether Biden or Trump wins in November.

"I think that's important to do as soon as they can," the former security adviser said. "But I think our strategy of assistance to Ukraine over the past two, almost two years, has not been very effective. And that's caused a lot of opposition in Congress. I don't think that's a reason not to vote for aid, but I think our failures to deploy the assistance strategically have contributed to the gridlock we see now. I'd like to see that change, but I don't see any prospect of that in a Biden administration or a Trump administration."