China's efforts to bring about a temporary ceasefire between Myanmar's government and a coalition of three rebel groups fighting just south of its border appear to have failed as the self-proclaimed insurgents continued to battle the ruling military junta.
Beijing announced on December 14 that it had mediated a pause in fighting between Myanmar's junta and armed ethnic minority groups in northern Shan State, close to China's southwestern province of Yunnan.
Since the announcement, the rebel groups have continued to attack Myanmar's government forces, who have faced civil resistance since helping to oust Aung San Suu Kyi's democratically elected government in 2021.
"China hopes relevant parties in Myanmar can effectively implement what has been agreed, exercise maximum restraint," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a regular press briefing in Beijing last week while calling for a "soft landing."
The Ta'ang National Liberation Army, one of the rebel groups involved, stated that it was not aware of any such deal, according to Bloomberg. Moreover, the TNLA noted recent fighting in the Shan town of Kutkai, casting further doubt on the effectiveness of the ceasefire Beijing was attempting to broker.
Myanmar's junta had previously acknowledged China's role in facilitating discussions with the rebel groups, known collectively as the "Three Brotherhood Alliance," hinting at more talks in the future.
Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, a Myanmar government spokesperson, emphasized the significance of China's involvement in seeking a political solution to the conflict, which had been brewing for months before all-out hostilities began.
The alliance escalated the conflict in late October, capturing small towns, including a key trading hub on the Chinese border. Operation 1027, as the offensive was known, remains a major concern for Beijing, which has repeatedly urged a cessation of hostilities.
Myanmar's military junta now faces a severe threat from the coalition.
Avinash Paliwal, a Reader in international relations at SOAS, University of London, was skeptical about the likelihood of a swift end to hostilities. Some of the rebels also may be using the possibility of talks as a tactic to gain momentum in their offensive, he observed.
"The Arakan Army hasn't entered the talks even if other groups like Mon and Ta'ang have said they might be willing to talk. The Arakan Army is very clear that it will not, so a lot also comes down to who is negotiating and what is the purpose of it," Paliwal said in a recent interview with Newsweek.
"There might be tactical reasons for the resistance to do this," he said, adding that a "serious rapprochement with Naypyidaw" was not probable.
"This is, to me, a very classic move by the Chinese. Even if they succeed in brokering a ceasefire, it wouldn't be something that will last, and I don't see this potential ceasefire feeding toward any particular sort of political agreement," he said.
Priscilla Clapp and Jason Tower, analysts at the United States Institute for Peace, a think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C., criticized China's approach in an analysis published last week.
The Chinese government's strategy of fragmenting the armed resistance and pushing for a once-off ceasefire was a flawed method of peacemaking, ignoring lessons from decades of failed peace initiatives in Myanmar, the authors argued.
Clapp and Tower also highlighted the broader implications of Operation 1027: While it advanced China's goal of eradicating forced labor camps near its border, it disrupted China-Myanmar border trade and triggered a nationwide response by the resistance, inflicting significant losses on the junta.
China had grown increasingly frustrated by online fraud rings operating from within Myanmar's borders, largely Chinese-run groups that targeted Chinese nationals. Beijing has sought to use Operation 1027 to target the scam operations, but that has also in turn strengthened the rebel alliance's hand in their negotiations with Beijing, Clapp and Tower said.
Morgan Michaels, a research fellow for Southeast Asian politics and foreign policy at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, wrote in a December report that Operation 1027 had become a major setback for Myanmar's armed forces, reshaping the country's conflict landscape.
Michaels said China had backed the Ta'ang and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army by supplying weapons for their strategic objective.
Both groups "enjoy support from China in the form of access to weapons, ammunition, commercial uninhabited aerial vehicles, and liaison offices in the country," Michaels wrote.
The Beijing-backed groups have used the support to gain territory close to the border, Michaels said, and now China is desperately trying to get the rebel groups to honor the brokered peace.
"China has begun to restrict cross-border access to pressure the Brotherhood Alliance into negotiating, and it will likely act to prevent a total regime collapse," Michaels concluded.
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About the writer
Aadil Brar is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers international security, U.S.-China relations, and East Asian ... Read more
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