'Isolated' Putin Has Nowhere To Go Except Beijing

Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing after months of isolation reveals the Kremlin's growing dependence on China.

On Tuesday, Putin landed in Beijing, marking his first major international travel, except for one visit to Minsk last year, since the beginning of war in Ukraine. Putin is in Beijing to attend the Belt and Road Summit (BRI) on October 17-18, and is set to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping tomorrow.

On March 17, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Putin for war crimes related to "unlawful deportation and transfer of children." The arrest warrant has loomed large over Putin's plans to travel outside Russia as he has avoided high-level summits in South Africa and India in the past months.

Experts believe isolated Putin will use the Beijing visit as an opportunity to "meet with other like-minded leaders."

Theresa Fallon, founder and director of the Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies (CREAS) in Brussels, told Newsweek: "The ICC warrant limits Putin's travel but he did manage to meet with Kim Jong-un, who traveled by rail, in Vladivostok. This signaled that Putin had other options, but let's face it, visiting with the leader of the 'Hermit Kingdom' also demonstrates just how isolated Putin is."

"Travel to Beijing for the BRI affords Putin an opportunity to meet with other like-minded leaders. Putin's isolation magnifies his complicated relationship with Xi and also his dependence."

Putin was greeted by the Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao at the airport in Beijing, where he was welcomed with a red carpet.

Chinese social media was fixated on Putin's Beijing trip as Russia remains China's top ally. The hashtag "President Putin arrives in Beijing" was viewed over 220 million times on Weibo and was the number one trend. The search term "President Putin arrives in Beijing," was the number one trend on the popular Chinese search engine Baidu.

Even before landing in Beijing, Putin began to heap praise on Xi in an interview with China Media Group in Moscow.

"President Xi Jinping is a different kind of person. He is a firm, calm, pragmatic, and reliable partner," said Putin in his interview. "Russia highly appreciates China's proposals to end the Ukraine crisis."

Putin's remarks regarding China's position in the Ukraine war were broadcast by Phoenix Television, which didn't appear in China Media Group's coverage of his interview in Moscow. On Tuesday, Putin's comment on China's Ukraine position started a social media trend on Weibo with the hashtag: "Putin said thank you to China for thinking about how to end Ukraine." Putin's remarks were seen positively by Chinese social media users.

Xi last met Putin in Moscow in March when both announced a "new blueprint for China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership" with very few details about what the new blueprint entails. Beijing has stopped mentioning the "no-limits partnership" with Moscow since the war in Ukraine began, complicating the bilateral relationship.

Neil Thomas, Fellow for Chinese Politics at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, believes Beijing is setting the "diplomatic and economic terms of the relations" with Russia.

"Putin's attendance at the BRI forum illustrates his close alignment with Xi on fostering an international order that prioritizes development over democracy and supports the interests of authoritarian governments. But Putin's invasion of Ukraine, by isolating the Russian economy from the West, has made Russia far more dependent on China, which is increasingly able to set the diplomatic and economic terms of bilateral relations," Thomas told Newsweek.

Fallon added that Xi has been "handcuffed to Putin's poor choices."

"Xi Jinping is handcuffed to Putin's poor choices and war in Ukraine. This has caused Xi reputational damage, especially in Europe, but Xi continues to deepen his partnership with Putin. Putin is becoming more dependent on the PRC for sales of Russian energy and dual-use goods, but this comes at a steep cost as Beijing bargains for more access to the Arctic, and advanced technology the Kremlin previously withheld," Fallon told Newsweek.

Fallon pointed out that there is convergence in Russia and China's position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

"Nevertheless, there is no daylight on their positions towards Israel." added Fallon.

With Putin by his side, Xi is likely to send a message to the U.S. and the West about the new global order that China and Russia prefer.

"Xi's message to the world is that China is a champion of the Global South and delivers what developing countries actually want, as opposed to the West supposedly telling other countries what is best and how they should run their governments," Thomas added.

Meanwhile, Xi's signature infrastructure program, the Belt and Road Initiative, is changing focus.

"China is shifting the BRI's focus from big construction projects to smaller and less-risky projects that often help to spread Chinese technology," Thomas told Newsweek.

Observers will closely watch the statements coming out of tomorrow's meeting between Xi and Putin to get a sense of the Kremlin's dependence on Beijing.