The UK's tabloid Daily Mail has claimed that 55 Chinese soldiers on board died from hypoxia after a system fault on China's People's Liberation Army submarine.
"Our understanding is death caused by hypoxia due to a system fault on the submarine," reported Daily Mail on October 3.
Where Did the Claim Begin?
The Daily Mail based its reporting on a "secret" UK intelligence report held at a high classification level but leaked to the media. Before the Mail's news story, a rumor circulated on X, formerly Twitter, with similar details.
But the original source of the rumor of a Chinese submarine sinking can be traced back to Lude Media (name Luther), a popular YouTube account run by a Chinese dissident blogger based in the US. In the video, Lude claimed that the submarine sunk into the sea north of Taiwan after it ran out of battery.
"A Type 093A attack nuclear submarine of the Chinese Communist Party has just crashed off the coast of Lianyungang (north of Taiwan), and all officers and soldiers died," said the Lude Media account owner in the YouTube video.
In the video, Lude claimed that 22 Chinese PLA Navy soldiers on board the Shang-class Type093 submarine died, which left Qingdao Port. Lude said his claim was based on leaked 'intelligence reported' by China's Central Military Commission dated August 21, which suggested that a rescue mission was underway to bring up the submarine.
"The submarine surfaced after the frogmen went to sea for rescue and has now returned to port," said the owner of Lude Media in an X on August 24.
Later, another famous analyst who writes about submarines, Covertshores, repeated the claims made by Lude Media, which were later deleted.
Are the Claims Credible?
The credibility of the claims forwarded by Lude is questionable.
Expert analysts who use open-source techniques to track the activities in the South China Sea area have suggested that there was no sign of intense activity to rescue the submarine—something that would leave a digital signature.
"In essence, the UK report might be considered a secondary source, relying on Lude Media's original information," said Duan Dang, an open-source analyst based in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
"The details in the Daily Mail report closely align with information previously published by the original source, Lude Media, on August 23. According to Lude Media, the information originated from a confidential report sent to China's Central Military Commission after the accident," said Duan Dang.
But Duan doesn't discount the possibility that the mission could have been completed within a few hours if the submarine was rescued from the ocean, leaving no signature.
Another expert doesn't find the Daily Mail report credible.
"This Daily Mail article is not credible," said Drew Thompson, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Lee Kwan Yew School of Public Policy and a former defense department official on X, formerly Twitter.
Thompson pointed out another inconsistency in the Mail story, which claimed the batteries were running flat, by adding the submarine as a nuclear-powered submarine. The likelihood of a nuclear submarine running out of batteries doesn't add to the claim made by Mail.
On August 22, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence said they didn't detect any evidence of a submarine crash.
"Military intelligence and surveillance did not detect any evidence of a Chinese submarine crash near the Taiwan Strait," said Sun Li-fang during a press conference when asked about the rumor.
But later, Taiwanese defense officials added that the matter was "extremely confidential."
"The relevant information must be extremely confidential, and the Ministry of National Defense will obtain relevant details, but due to the sensitivity of the matter, it is inconvenient to disclose it," said Taiwanese Major General Huang Wenqi on September 12.
The rumors and the mystery around the submarine crash continue circulating on social media.
China's Defense Ministry on August 31 called the submarine crash claims "purely a rumor".
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Aadil Brar is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers international security, U.S.-China relations, and East Asian ... Read more
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