Roughly 1 in 4 Democrats is backing former GOP Governor Larry Hogan's Senate bid in Maryland, one of the most Democratic states in the country, according to new polling.
Hogan, who ran the state from 2015 to 2023, holds a narrow lead over the two top Democratic candidates, Representative David Trone and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, according to a Goucher College survey released Tuesday.
Maryland is not usually viewed as a particularly competitive state, as heavily Democratic areas near Washington, D.C., and Baltimore typically keep it out of Republicans' reach.
In the 2020 presidential election, President Joe Biden won the state by 33 points, giving him more than 65 percent of the vote, one of his strongest showings—and it is not expected to become competitive on the presidential level this year.
But Hogan brings a high level of name recognition, and his brand of more moderate politics—and staunch opposition to Donald Trump—has historically played well for him among Maryland Democrats, many of whom have backed his gubernatorial campaigns in 2014 and 2018.
The poll, which surveyed 800 Maryland voters from March 19 to 24, found that in a head-to-head race against Trone, 43 percent of respondents would back Hogan, while 42 percent would vote for Trone. In that matchup, 24 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Hogan.
If Alsobrooks wins the Democratic nomination, Hogan's lead grows to 44 percent over her 40 percent. In this scenario, 25 percent of Democrats said they would support Hogan.
Maryland Senate Candidates React to New Poll
Gina Ford, a spokesperson for the Alsobrooks campaign, responded to the poll, which she said shows Alsobrooks "quickly closing the gap in the primary" and entering April "with clear momentum" as voters are "just getting to know Angela on the airwaves."
Ford told Newsweek that Maryland is a "tale of two states when it comes to voting in gubernatorial and presidential years," which will bring out more Democratic voters.
"The candidate who can beat Larry Hogan is the candidate who can energize those voters, including young voters and people of color. Angela Alsobrooks is the candidate who can and will turn out the necessary Democrats to win in November," Ford said.
Onotse Omoyeni, a Trone campaign spokesperson, told Newsweek that Marylanders "understand the stakes of this election and will not risk their freedoms with Larry Hogan and Republicans in the Senate."
She described Trone as the "only candidate in this race who will protect our freedom, expand opportunity for all Maryland families and put people over politics in the Senate.
"The polls are crystal clear: David Trone is the best candidate to stop Larry from making Mitch's dreams come true. Marylanders are excited to send David to the Senate because he's on a mission: to kick special interests out of politics and put power back into the hands of the people," Omoyeni said, referring to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
The Hogan campaign also responded to the poll. A spokesperson told Newsweek that the former governor is "humbled by the support from across the political spectrum."
"They know he has a record of working for all Marylanders, regardless of political affiliation. As the underdog in this race, he will continue to focus on fixing the broken politics of Washington," the spokesperson said.
Democrats Face Daunting Senate Odds
Democrats are facing a potentially difficult year in the Senate that threatens to wipe out their control of Congress' upper chamber. They must defend Democratic-held seats in two Republican-leaning states, Ohio and Montana, as well as several battleground states—Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
With a slim majority of only 51 Senate seats, Democrats have little room for error. If they lose one seat, Senate control would be determined by whichever party holds the White House, as the vice president serves as the tiebreaker in Senate votes. If they lose two seats, they would lose their majority.
Hogan's candidacy could put Democrats on the defense in a safely Democratic state as they fight to maintain their Senate majority in more competitive states. Other polls have similarly found Hogan with a lead over his Democratic rivals.
An earlier poll from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement found a more substantial lead for Hogan.
In that survey, he led Trone by 12 points and Alsobrooks by 14 points. It was conducted from March 5 to 12 among 1,004 likely voters.
Update 4/2/2024, 9:03 a.m. ET: This story was updated with comments from Gina Ford, a spokesperson for the Angela Alsobrooks campaign.
Update 4/2/2024, 11:45 a.m. ET: This story was updated with comments from the David Trone and Larry Hogan campaigns.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
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