Democrats could be about to pull off a shock upset in Tuesday's Mississippi gubernatorial election, with a recent poll putting their candidate behind by just one point, while a major bookmaker now has him odds-on to win.
Brandon Presley, second cousin of music legend Elvis Presley, is hoping to unseat incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves. It would make him the first Democratic governor of the state for two decades.
Two gubernatorial elections are scheduled for November 7, in Mississippi and Kentucky, in what will be a major test for Democrats and Republicans ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The day will also see two special elections to the House of Representatives, following the resignations of Rhode Island Democrat David Cicilline and Utah Republican Chris Stewart, along with a range of contests at the state level.
The most-recent poll for the Mississippi contest, released by the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) in October, gave Reeves a lead of just one point, putting him on 46 percent of the vote against 45 percent for Presley. This marks a sharp departure from two previous polls, which took place in August and September and gave Reeves leads of 11 percent and 8 percent respectively.
British bookmaker Betfair Exchange is currently forecasting a Presley win. Company spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek: "Brandon Presley is the 4/7 odds-on favorite to win the Mississippi governor election, while Tate Reeves is 11/8 to win a second term as the pair hurled insults at each other during a tense debate on Wednesday night."
Presley has substantially outraised Reeves by more than $5 million this year, greatly assisted by $3.75 million that has been given to his campaign by the DGA, a group affiliated with the national Democratic Party.
In 2020, voters in Mississippi overturned a Jim Crow-era law imposed in 1890. It required candidates for statewide office to win a majority of both the popular vote and the 122 state House districts, substantially decreasing the power of mostly Democratic-supporting Black voters.
Charles V. Taylor Jr., who heads the Mississippi state conference of civil-rights group N.A.A.C.P., told the The New York Times this could have a major impact in the state.
He said: "This election is going to be one that is historical. It'd be the first time we don't have to deal with this Jim Crow-era Electoral College when it comes to the gubernatorial race. And also, we're at a point in our state where people are fed up and frustrated with what's currently happening."
Reeves, who denies any wrongdoing, has been caught up in a fraud scandal over the state's misspending of welfare funds during his time as lieutenant governor. He is overseeing Mississippi's lawsuit against more than two-dozen businesses or people to recover more than $20 million of the roughly $77 million that was misspent between 2016 and 2019. Last month, one of the defendants sued Reeves, accusing him of illegally controlling the lawsuit to protect his political allies.
On October 22, Presley posted on X, formerly Twitter, a photo of himself and his wife posing with actor Morgan Freeman, at a property he owns.
This sparked an angry response from Reeves, who commented: "Some folks fight for endorsements from Hollywood liberals. I prefer endorsements from truck drivers."
Newsweek has reached out to the campaigns of Gov. Tate Reeves and Brandon Presley for comment by email.
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James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more
