Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground with a group of voters Republicans have struggled with for decades, according to a new poll from The New York Times.
Trump remains the frontrunner to win the Republican Party's presidential primary next year, potentially setting off a rematch with President Joe Biden in November. Polls show a close race, with Trump appearing to hold an edge over Biden as voters sour on the incumbent over issues ranging from inflation, immigration and the Israel-Hamas war.
A new poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena College found Trump leading Biden by two percentage points nationwide but also delivered a warning sign to Biden about his support among young voters.
Although Democrats typically win young voters, viewed as the most progressive voting bloc, Trump now leads Biden among voters aged 18 to 29, according to the poll.
Forty-nine percent of young voters said they plan to back Trump in the general election, while only 43 said they would vote for Biden. That marks a significant drop from August when Biden won that group over Trump by a margin of 47-37 in a separate poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.
Newsweek reached out to Trump and Biden's campaigns for comment via email.
The poll surveyed 1,016 registered voters across the country, in both English and Spanish, on cellular and landline telephones from December 10 to 14. The poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Biden has faced backlash from young voters, particularly as many of them have broken from his administration's stance on the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Biden has generally supported Israel, arguing the nation has a right to defend itself following Hamas' October 7 attack, but has also cautioned Israeli leaders to mitigate the number of civilian casualties among Palestinians.
Polls suggest young voters are more sympathetic to Palestinians, and many have joined calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Biden, however, has rejected those calls, alienating some young voters.
But other polls have offered better news for Biden.
A poll from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics (IOP) released earlier in December found Biden leading Trump among young voters by 15 percentage points. That poll surveyed 2,098 people between ages 18 and 29 from October 23 to November 6.
Young voters who have shifted away from Biden are not necessarily voting for Trump, who is also staunchly pro-Israel and opposes student loan relief. A November New York Times/Siena College poll found that 34 percent of young voters plan to back Robert F. Kennedy Jr, an independent. That poll surveyed 3,662 registered voters across six battleground states from October 22 to November 3.
How Young People Voted in Past Elections
Young voters have long backed the Democratic Party by large margins in past elections, though they also turn out at lower rates than older individuals. The latest poll, if it holds up through next November, would indicate a notable shift among young voters toward Republicans.
According to The New York Times exit poll of the 2020 election, 60 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 backed Biden, while only 36 percent said they voted for Trump. They comprised only 17 percent of the electorate that year.
In 2016, 55 percent of voters ages 18 to 29 voted for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 37 percent backed Trump, according to The New York Times exit poll.
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Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
