The proportion of registered Democrats who have a firearm in their home has jumped significantly over the past few years, according to a recent NBC News poll, with some analysts saying rising crime in urban areas could be behind the increase.
In November 2023 the survey found 41 percent of Democrats said they live in a household with a gun, up from 33 percent in a similar survey conducted by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal in August 2019. Notably, 33 percent of Democrats also said they lived with a gun in a similar NBC survey conducted in March 2004, indicating the sharp rise has been concentrated over the past four years. The latest NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted between November 10 and 14.
The data also showed a rise in Republicans having a gun at home, though this was much less sharp and more in line with previous trends. In November 2023, 66 percent of registered Republicans said they live with a firearm, against 64 percent in August 2019 and 57 percent in March 2004. Overall 52 percent of registered voters said their household has a gun in the latest poll, up from 46 percent in 2019.
Speaking to Newsweek Professor Gary Kleck, who teaches criminology and criminal justice at Florida State University, said the overall American figure is broadly in line with previous figures and suggested the increase amongst Democrats could be down to a crime surge in major cities.
He said: "The percent of American adults reporting a gun in their household was 53% in a January 1994 CBS/NY Times poll, 52% in a March 1989 CBS/NY Times poll, and a statistically indistinguishable 51% in Harris polls back in 1968 and 1971.
"These were all polls of the entire adult population, not just registered voters, but gun ownership is even higher among the latter than in the former, so the percentages would have been even higher if those earlier polls had they been confined to voters. In sum, there is nothing historically unprecedented about NBC's recent result. Seen in a longer perspective, they could reasonably be seen as a return to the U.S. historical norm."
However, he acknowledged the changing party basis of gun ownership, commenting: "As to why household gun ownership increased among Democrats in particular, it may be a response to recent increases in crime rates in big cities, where Democrats claim a larger share of the population."
Rising Democratic gun ownership was also attributed to crime by National Rifle Association spokesperson Billy McLaughlin who told Newsweek the latest survey results are "far from shocking."
McLaughlin continued: "Law-abiding Americans, having witnessed everything from politicians' attempts to close gun stores during the pandemic to the Biden Crime Wave decimating our communities, see law enforcement being undermined and progressive district attorneys not prosecuting criminals, effectively putting them back on the streets.
"This has awakened many Americans to the harsh reality that the responsibility to defend themselves and their family rests firmly in their own hands. The marked rise in gun ownership is a rational response from any citizen who sees the likelihood of them being a victim of crime has increased exponentially."
The U.S. did record a violent crime surge during and in the immediate aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, with the country recording 21,570 homicides in 2020, the highest figure since 1995 and a dramatic increase on the 16,669 counted in 2019.
Notably, a number of Democratic-run states and cities were particularly badly hit such as New York, which recorded a 97 percent increase in shooting incidents during 2020 compared to the previous year.
More recently, the Democratic-controlled city of Oakland in California has seen a sharp uptake in crime, which increased by 26 percent in the year to July 30 according to Oakland Police Department figures including a 52 percent increase in vehicle theft.
Professor Deana Rohlinger, who teaches sociology at Florida State University, agreed rising gun ownership amongst Democrats reflects their anxiety but suggested this could be linked to America's intense political divide, especially among minority groups.
Addressing Newsweek she said: "A decision to purchase a gun is complicated, regardless of political affiliation. Social scientists point to several possible explanations for the increase in gun ownership including a heightened sense of uncertainty and fear.
"For some, a gun purchase may be the result of their read on how increased political tensions and divisiveness in the U.S. might play out. For others, it may be the result of of individuals assessments of their personal safety in what they regard as a dangerous world. For example, LGBTQ+ individuals as well as religious and racial minorities might decide to purchase a gun for personal defense and so that they can feel safe."
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James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more
