Libertarian Marc Victor Drops Out of AZ Senate Race: Will It Help Masters?

A Libertarian candidate running for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona has dropped out of the race and is endorsing Republican Blake Masters, just one week before Election Day.

Libertarian Marc Victor said in a statement shared by Masters' campaign Tuesday that he and the Republican had taken part in a discussion to exchange ideas on issues like the economy, taxation, education and foreign policy.

"After that discussion, I believe it is in the best interests of freedom and peace to withdraw my candidacy and enthusiastically support Blake Masters for United States Senate," Victor said.

The U.S. Senate seat in Arizona is one of a few midterms races seen as key in deciding which party will hold control of the upper chamber of Congress. FiveThirtyEight's election model currently shows that there is a "dead heat" between Democrats and Republicans for control of the Senate, with both parties winning 50 out of 100 election outcomes.

Democratic Senator Mark Kelly has generally held a narrow lead in the Senate race, with FiveThirtyEight's current polling average giving him a 3.3-point advantage over his opponent. But Masters, who has also been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, described Victor's late-stage endorsement as a "major boost of momentum."

Experts who spoke to Newsweek questioned if Victor's support would be the eleventh-hour push Masters may need in order to secure a victory on Election Day.

"I certainly think it's good news for Blake Masters. In a race that seems to be this tight, anything can help," Christopher Devine, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Dayton, told Newsweek.

But Devine also noted that Victor had not gained much traction in polls before dropping out of the race, so the effect of his endorsement may be limited.

"There's not a lot of support for Victor to share with others," he said.

In a Monday poll from The New York Times/Siena College, Victor received 1 percent of support compared to Kelly's 51 percent and Masters' 45 percent. Victor received a slightly higher 3 percent in an OH Predictive Insights poll late last month that gave Kelly a tighter lead of 48 percent compared to Masters' 46 percent.

Devine, who has published research in the past on the Libertarian Party, said that depending on the election at hand, many Libertarian or other third party voters may opt not to vote at all if forced to choose between the two main political parties. When Libertarians do choose from the two parties, they tend to lean toward Republicans, he said.

"For those who were going to support Mark Victor, a good number of them may not vote, at least not for this race," Devine said. "But of those who do vote, I would expect that most of them are going to favor Blake Masters over Mark Kelly."

The fact that Victor has withdrawn from the race may not prevent him from getting votes all the same, considering that it is now too late for him to be pulled from the ballot. Devine said that people who had been planning to vote for Victor had already made "something of a counterintuitive choice" to support a candidate who they knew was not extremely likely to win.

"I think oftentimes with elections, we underestimate the expressive function of voting. It's not always to help someone win. Sometimes it's just to make a statement," Devine said. "Even if Marc Victor has dropped out, I suspect there's a good number of people, his supporters who will still vote for him because they're still just trying to make a statement rather than decide the race."

On the other hand, Masters can still get a boost from any momentum and positive coverage that the endorsement generates, Devine said.

Andrew Ballard, an assistant professor at American University's department of government, told Newsweek that he believes endorsements generally matter when they come from someone who is popular and viewed as credible to some portion of the public, as well as actually change behavior.

"So while I think that Victor's endorsement would be most likely to resonate with Libertarian voters, most of those folks would be more likely to vote for a Republican than a Democrat if there's no Libertarian in the race," Ballard said. "In other words, while the endorsement might give a small boost at the margins, it seems like Victor dropping out is going to move the needle more."

Pre-election voting has already begun across the United States. CNN, citing data from election officials, Edison Research and Catalist, reported Sunday that more than 20.7 million pre-election ballots had been cast in 46 states. In Arizona alone, more than 879,000 early votes have already been cast, according to NBC.

Brian Fife, professor and chair of the political science department at Lehigh University, said that since so many votes have already been cast, "it is difficult to discern if Victor's departure from the race will have any bearing on the outcome since he was polling so low and many voters who wait until Election Day feel compelled to conform to vote for one of the two major party candidates when they perceive that the race is very close."

"The ultimate factor in this close race, and in several others across the country, is the get out the vote effort," Fife told Newsweek. "If Senator Kelly's campaign can get his supporters to actually participate in the election, he should be afforded another term in office since he is leading in most polls. If not, the Republicans can pick up a Senate seat in Arizona in this hotly contested race."

Newsweek has reached out to Kelly and Masters' campaigns for comment.

Updated 11/1/22, 5:10 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with comments from Brian Fife.