NATO's Erdoğan Problem Casts Shadow Over Vilnius

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will travel to this week's NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, as one of the alliance's most powerful—and most difficult—members.

Erdoğan is playing the alliance's historic realignment to his own benefit. Buoyed by his recent electoral victory and still blocking Sweden's NATO membership bid, the Turkish president is in a strong negotiating position.

"It depends so much on one person," former NATO policymaker Fabrice Pothier told Newsweek of Sweden's ambition at Vilnius.

Dual Finnish-Swedish NATO accession was considered a foregone conclusion given the military strength and Western integration of both Nordic nations. Finland joined the alliance in April, but Sweden is still waiting for the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments to ratify its accession.

Erdoğan is leading the block, with Hungary and its populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban expected to fall in line behind Ankara if and when Turkish lawmakers do vote in favor. But it appears that the president wants to squeeze more out of Sweden and the United States in exchange for his backing.

High-level talks held last week do not appear to have found a breakthrough on the eve of the Vilnius summit.

"Erdoğan stated that Sweden has taken some steps in the right direction by making changes in the anti-terrorism legislation," Turkey's communications directorate said in a statement, referring to changes that came into effect this summer focused on choking funding for militant groups.

But continued demonstrations by supporters of "terrorist organizations," meaning pro-Kurdish groups including the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and People's Defense Units (YPG), which are banned in Turkey with the former also considered a terrorist group in the European Union and the U.S., continue to hold demonstrations in Sweden.

"This nullifies the steps taken," the Turkish statement said.

A Turkish Standoff

Erdoğan wants Sweden to take steps that Stockholm says would undermine the rule of law in the country, including cracking down more on pro-Kurdish groups, plus extraditing activists and other figures it says are associated with the failed 2016 military coup, which Ankara blames on U.S.-based preacher Muhammed Fethullah Gülen.

Repeated Quran burning in Stockholm protests have lent Erdoğan's demands additional weight and sharpened Turkish public and political opinion against Sweden's accession.

On Monday, the president even linked Turkey's long-held but long-frozen EU membership ambitions to Stockholm's delayed NATO accession.

"First, let's pave the way for Türkiye in the European Union, and then we will pave the way for Sweden just as we did for Finland," he said at a press conference.

NATO leaders have repeatedly said Sweden is ready to join and has done enough to win Turkish support. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has seemingly not given up on hopes that Vilnius can serve as a coronation for NATO's thirty-second member, saying last week: "We all agreed that we have made good progress."

"We all agreed that the full membership of Sweden is in the security interests of all allies, and we all want to conclude this process as soon as possible," Stoltenberg said. Still, he noted "some unsolved issues."

"We are addressing them now. We'll work on it over the weekend," he said.

Stockholm and Washington, D.C., have both said Swedish leaders have "fulfilled the commitments they made" in exchange for Turkish support.

Pothier said it is unclear how much further the aspirant nation can go.

"Clearly, the Swedes have got a quite long way in changing the legislation and addressing some of the, I would say legitimate concerns of the Turks," he said.

"I think the Swedes have gone as far as they could, short of instructing the judiciary to prosecute some people, which is what the Turks wanted," Pothier added. "But it's obviously not going to happen in a country like Sweden, which has the rule of law and independence of the judiciary."

Fatih Ceylan, a former Turkish ambassador to NATO, told Newsweek that Erdoğan may still need concessions to ease the bid, even if Sweden has already made progress and the veteran leader has successfully navigated the May presidential and parliamentary elections.

"The elections could give President Erdoğan more room to maneuver in resolving this matter," Ceylan said, describing the eventual comfortable victory as a "relief" for the long-time leader.

"He needs something that he could 'sell' to the Turkish public from the Swedish side. This is important...Elections are over in Turkey. So, he's more confident because he has the electoral support behind him. That could give him room for flexibility. But I think he needs something from Sweden."

Ceylan added: "I'm sure that the Turkish side will have some proposals or solutions when they go to the Vilnius summit. And I think the Swedish side should also have some proposals in their own pockets...I think Sweden could conceive of small gestures that would expedite the process."

American Support

The White House is trying to twist Erdoğan's arm, with Biden saying last week while hosting Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson: "Sweden is going to make our alliance stronger."

The U.S. president added he is "anxiously looking forward" to Stockholm's accession.

A long-delayed $20 billion deal to sell Turkey American-made F-16s might yet prove the key. Biden told CNN this weekend he is trying to create "a little bit of a consortium" in collaboration with Turkey, Sweden, and Greece to conclude the sale and bring Sweden into the NATO fold. "It's in play," Biden said. "It's not done."

But Erdoğan's brinkmanship has won him few new fans in Congress, which holds significant power over what countries the U.S. sells weapons to.

In February, a bipartisan group of 27 senators signed a letter to the White House declaring: "Once the NATO accession protocols are ratified by Türkiye, Congress can consider the sale of F16 fighter jets. A failure to do so, however, would call into question this pending sale."

That appeal came days after Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen called for sanctions on Turkey, suggesting Erdoğan had "taken Turkey down a very bad path."

Even a détente with the White House might not be enough to ease congressional frustrations, Pothier said.

"The U.S. Congress is not in the same place as the Biden administration on Turkey," he said. "They are pretty annoyed. They think Turkey is not the ally it used to be. I think the purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-missile system was really a red line for Congress. Biden's hands are a bit tied on this one, because any agreement on something as substantial as the F-16 will have to be stamped by Congress."

Newsweek reached out to Erdoğan's office via email for comment.