Ukraine will eventually be invited to join NATO, one alliance foreign minister has said, after U.S. President Joe Biden stated that Kyiv's long-held membership ambitions would not be realized at this week's pivotal bloc summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told Newsweek on Monday it came as no surprise that the U.S. president this weekend ruled out an imminent membership offer for Ukraine. Biden cited the unacceptable danger of a direct NATO-Russia conflict if Kyiv were to be admitted to the 31-nation body.
But, Tsahkna added, this week's Vilnius summit should make clear that Ukrainian accession is "inevitable," regardless of threats and aggression from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"I'm not surprised," Tsahkna said of Biden's CNN interview, in which the president stated that there is no alliance unanimity as to Ukrainian accession in the midst of its war with Moscow.
"We are in the middle of negotiations and drafting the communiqué for NATO about the Ukrainian path," Tsahkna added. "I hope that we will find a way to define the communiqué text and the common understanding that Ukrainian membership, in a way, is inevitable."
"Nobody is talking about Ukraine becoming a full member of NATO tomorrow," Tsahkna said. "But what we want to achieve is that we will very clearly send a message—for Ukrainians and also for Putin—that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, that there is a path, what are the next steps for that, and that this message is also clear to our allies in NATO."
The 2008 Bucharest summit declaration announced that NATO "welcomes Ukraine's and Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO." But Kyiv was denied a Membership Action Plan (MAP) or any other detailed guidance on its accession.
Since then, Ukraine has been stuck in what President Volodymyr Zelensky has termed a "gray zone," unable to convince NATO partners that admitting Kyiv is worth the risk of a potential direct conflict with Russia.
Putin's February 2022 invasion did more for Ukraine's NATO cause than anything before it. But without victory over—or at least some kind of peace with—Russia, Kyiv cannot hope to be admitted.
"There is a common understanding between the allies and also the Ukrainian government that membership cannot come right now in the middle of the hot military crisis," Tsahkna said. "But there must be a path, an inevitable understanding that Ukraine is becoming as a member of NATO. This is important as well, if we want to get a victory from the war."
A Historic Summit
NATO allies in Vilnius will be looking to advance the 2008 Bucharest statement—which was already "pretty strong," Tsahkna said—without committing to a detailed timeline for Ukrainian membership. One option reportedly backed by Biden and other leaders is to officially jettison any Ukrainian need for a MAP.
"There is a common understanding that we don't need this MAP, because Ukraine is already fulfilling this MAP in reality. They are on the ground fighting against Russia using our weapons and our doctrines," Tsahkna said.
"There are ongoing negotiations and communication between allies in Brussels and between different governments to find the best wording for the communiqué. But the wording must be so clear that everyone understands what is going to happen," the foreign minister added.
"This is the historical momentum, to give the message. And it is also very important for the Ukrainian soldiers on the ground, because they need the perspective and hope and the clear message that actually NATO will accept Ukraine as a member of NATO in the future."
"The most dangerous place—as I have said many times—for the neighboring countries of Russia is to be in a waiting room without plan," the foreign minister added. "We must put the plan on the table."
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine—the latest chapter of a conflict stretching back to Kyiv's post-Soviet independence—has forced a reckoning in Europe and within NATO, which, in the years preceding, had struggled to define its 21st-century role.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Monday that "intensive" talks among NATO allies had "reached consensus" on waiving the MAP requirement for Ukraine.
Tsahkna said the Vilnius summit should serve as an important marker. "We must understand clearly, as well, that we are establishing now the new European architecture of security," he added. "There cannot be gray areas of neutrality in the border countries of NATO, and nations should have the opportunity and right to decide whether they belong to the democratic part of the world or not."
Sweden and Finland, Tsahkna said, "understood that there can be no gray areas or neutrality allowed."
"Now it's clear that Ukraine is never going to turn towards Moscow," the minister added. "It is an assurance that this nation has decided to be integrated to the democratic world, and also the defense organization of NATO."
"I really do hope that we will find the wording and the common understanding before the summit starts tomorrow, or even during the summit. We're still ready for that," Tsahkna said.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
