NATO's Eastern states are sounding the alarm over the reported settling of Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus. New satellite imagery has emerged that suggests the construction of camps to house the fighters within a few hours' drive of alliance borders and the location of next month's pivotal NATO summit.
Polish, Lithuanian, and Latvian officials on Thursday told journalists that the apparent arrival of oligarch-turned-warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner forces in Belarus poses a new and direct threat to NATO and European Union frontiers.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said his government is "extremely concerned" about the presence of "these serial killers" in Belarus. Lithuania will next month host a NATO summit that will be influential for Ukraine's ongoing defense against Russia, and pivotal in deciding the alliance's long-term strategic posture.
"They could be and emerge in Belarus at any moment," Nausėda said. "And nobody knows when they could turn against us." The threat, the president added, should prompt NATO to "take bold decisions on the strengthening of [its] eastern flank."
One Latvian diplomat, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly on the issue, told Newsweek they are "watching and assessing" the arrival of Wagner fighters in Belarus. "It's not really clear yet what is, or will be, Wagner's presence," they said.
"Any presence in Belarus of course will be an additional argument for asking for additional sanctions against Belarus, aligning Russian sanctions with sanctions against Belarus, and for strengthening the security of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia."
The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry told Newsweek in a statement: "The fact that Belarus has lost political sovereignty and Russia treats Belarus territory as its proxy, brings all the Russian chaos and instability much closer to our borders.
"This affects wider geopolitical security situation in our region. However, we shall not be scared, but we shall get even more and better prepared. Scaling up defense and deterrence capacities for Lithuania and other Eastern-flank countries is what we need."
The Wagner Group's status in Belarus remains unclear. Following Prigozhin's abortive insurrection earlier this month, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko helped facilitate an agreement between Wagner and the Kremlin for the rebels to relocate to Belarus. Those who do not will be offered integration into the regular Russian armed forces.
The Pentagon has said that Wagner fighters remain in occupied Ukraine, though Ukrainian spy chief Kyrylo Budanov has said the organization "will no longer participate in hostilities."
Newsweek has reached out to the Belarusian Foreign Ministry by email for comment on the status of Wagner forces inside the country.
The Institute for the Study of War on Thursday noted recent satellite imagery that "may have detected active construction of a speculated new Wagner Group base in Asipovichy." The town is in the eastern Belarusian region of Mogilev, around 60 miles southeast of the capital Minsk.
Russian media reports suggest a network of camps in the Mogilev region designed to host thousands of fighters. Such camps would be within 200 miles of the Ukrainian, Lithuanian, and Latvian borders, and within 300 miles of the Polish frontier. Driving from Asipovichy to Vilnius—the Lithuanian capital that will host NATO leaders next month—takes under four hours.
Alliance leaders are keenly aware of the danger of conventional or covert attacks by Wagner forces in Belarus. Eastern European allies well remember the 2021-2022 border crisis when Lukashenko's government weaponized migration against the EU, encouraging and at times even driving desperate migrants across Belarus' shared borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia in retaliation against sanctions.
"We keep a very wary eye on everything that occurs in Belarus with Prigozhin there and an unknown number of very trained and skilled fighters who presumably will be joining him," Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš told reporters at the EU leaders in Brussels this week.
"That does potentially pose a threat. The threat would probably not be a frontal military threat, but the threat of attempted infiltration into Europe for unknown purposes," added Krišjānis Kariņš. "So that means we need to heighten our border awareness and make sure that we can control that."
Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jabłoński said the problem is a continental one. "European solidarity means supporting countries threatened with destabilization," he told public radio on Thursday.
Update 6/30/23, 10:25 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from a Latvian diplomat.
Update 7/4/23, 7:25 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry.
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