As the world's eyes turn from Ukraine to Israel and Gaza, NATO countries on the alliance's eastern edge are staring down Russia and strengthening their presence on the bloc's "most exposed" flank.
Lithuania, Poland, and other NATO nations close to Russia and Belarus are bolstering defense and their "deterrence posture on the Eastern flank," including protection for the contentious Suwałki Gap, Vilnius' defense minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, told Newsweek.
A small strip of land close to the Polish-Lithuanian border that links Belarus to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, the Suwałki Gap is a constant, rumbling concern in eastern Europe. With Poland and Lithuania staunch allies of Ukraine—and Belarus firmly standing with Russia—the Suwałki Gap has been intermittently described as NATO's weak point and the alliance's most fortified boundary.
"Together with our allies, we are creating [the] right set of capabilities and plans to defend every inch of NATO's territory," Anušauskas said. Lithuania is investing in its armed forces and its supplies and NATO's presence close to the Gap, he added, although the strategically important strip of land will "remain a fundamental challenge."
"In geographical terms, the Baltic States remain as the most exposed [of] NATO's territory, which requires specific measures to ensure credible deterrence and defense," Anušauskas explained.
Russia used Belarus as a springboard to launch its invasion of Ukraine 20 months ago, and reignited fears over the Suwałki Gap earlier this year when exiled Wagner mercenaries moved en masse to Belarusian bases close to it.
In the midst of the heightened tensions around Belarus, Poland and Lithuania, a Russian lawmaker told Moscow-controlled state television that Wagner forces could be in Belarus to seize the Suwałki Gap. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko also commented in mid-July that Wagner mercenaries arriving and training in Belarus after leaving Russia were itching to move "westward" towards the country's border with Poland.
Poland quickly moved to swell its military presence close to the Gap, and Warsaw's defense minister, Mariusz Błaszczak, declared: "We care about the security of the eastern flank!" Lithuania's defense ministry also told Newsweek in late July it was "actively monitoring" Russian mercenary activity around the Suwałki Gap.
The main concern for the Baltic nations is that Russia could mount some form of military incursion into NATO via the Gap from Belarus, burrowing into Europe via the strip of land on the way to Kaliningrad.
"It facilitates the possible land routes for NATO troops in between Central Europe and the Baltic States," Anušauskas said. With Belarus "basically integrated into Russia's military planning," as Anušauskas put it, it is not hard to see how Moscow could move a large number of its troops through it into NATO heartlands, while having the ability to resupply them via the port at Kaliningrad.
Any incursion of this type on a NATO country would likely spark a collective, emphatic response under the alliance's Article 5, which regards an attack on a member as an attack on all other member states.
But despite the worries of the NATO governments close to the Gap, the Kremlin is not inclined to do so, not least because of NATO's attention on the territory, Western experts say.
It is "baffling" to consider the Gap a significant possible flashpoint now, and it is very hard to see how Russia could, or would want to, mount such an attack on NATO, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Chatham House think tank, told Newsweek.
For the moment, Russia has neither the intent nor the capability to mount such an assault on NATO, agreed Emily Ferris, a research fellow specializing in Russia at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank. It is "quite unrealistic" to imagine Russia could launch a ground operation in the Gap as it fights its war in Ukraine, she told Newsweek.
"Russian troops are so embroiled in eastern Ukraine at the moment, but very hard to see where there would be even breathing room for them to consider a land assault on another country," she said. It would "be a declaration of war in Europe" that Moscow shows all the signs of wanting to avoid, she continued. And while Kaliningrad, and the Baltic Russian bases there, may be "inherently vulnerable," this is balanced out by Russia's significant military presence and missile systems based there, she added.
"The idea of attacking a NATO state, I think, is a red line—even for Moscow," Ferris said.
The Wagner troops that loomed on the alliance's eastern flank have retreated as a threat in recent weeks; reports have suggested their Belarusian bases have been dismantled, and many fighters have returned to Ukraine.
But the geography hasn't changed, and the NATO countries do not forget the "range of provocations from Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarusian sides" described by Anušauskas. The Wagner formations may have faded, but Lithuania remembers "orchestrated migration waves" and "increased tactical nuclear threatening" over the last two years, he said.
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About the writer
Ellie Cook is a Newsweek security and defense reporter based in London, U.K. Her work focuses largely on the Russia-Ukraine ... Read more
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