Shock Poll Gives Challenger Lead in State Donald Trump Won by 19 Points

An independent Senate candidate in Nebraska, a state former President Donald Trump won by 19 points in 2020, is polling ahead of the state's Republican incumbent, according to a new poll.

Dan Osborn, a military veteran, is ahead of Senator Deb Fischer, who has represented the state since 2012, 40 percent to 38 percent, the Change Research poll shows. The Senate election in Nebraska will be held on November 5, 2024, alongside the presidential election.

Fifty-three percent of poll respondents were Republican, 33 percent Democrat and 14 percent independent, while 53 percent said they voted for Trump in 2020 and 35 percent for President Joe Biden.

Polls for the 2024 presidential race have shown Trump and Biden in a back-and-forth contest. Trump, despite his legal woes, is the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination.

Newsweek has reached out to Change Research, as well as representatives for Fischer and Osborn for comment.

"Nebraskans have had it with Washington. We've been starving for honest government that isn't bought and paid for," Osborn told The Intercept. "This poll shows that Nebraska's independent streak is alive and well."

He added on a post on X, formerly Twitter: "I am beating 12-year Republican incumbent @SenatorFischer in a new poll. My name is Dan Osborn, and I'm an Independent running for Senate in Nebraska. I'm a labor leader who led a strike against Kellogg's. I'm tired of mediocre leadership."

The Change Research poll shows respondents still favor Trump over Biden by a margin of 16 points, and 59 percent of respondents said they had never heard of Osborn.

The poll results were in contrast to the 2020 presidential election, when Trump won four of the state's five Electoral College votes, with 58.2 percent of the vote to Biden's 39.2 percent.

In the Senate election in 2020, Republican incumbent Ben Sasse received 62.7 percent of the vote to Democratic candidate Chris Janicek's 24.4 percent. Sasse resigned on January, 8, 2023, to become president of the University of Florida, and Governor Jim Pillen appointed Pete Ricketts to his seat.

Upon announcing his candidacy, Osborn pledged to build a coalition on labor and economic issues, saying he would reform railroad safety and increase pay for service members.

"I will bring together workers, farmers, ranchers and small business owners across Nebraska around bread-and-butter issues that appeal across party lines," he said.

While Democrats have not yet fielded a candidate in the race, in October, Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb told The Intercept it would make an endorsement decision in February and did not rule out endorsing Osborn.

Newsweek has reached out to the Nebraska Democratic Party for comment.