Oscars 2024 Predictions: Who Will Be Nominated for the Academy Awards?

The 96th annual Academy Award nominations will be announced very early in the morning on Tuesday, January 23rd. ('Early' is italicized because I'm not looking forward to waking up that early and need to complain to somebody.) As the award season has shown us this year, expect the expected, with the possibility of a few twists thrown in there for good measure. We know Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things and The Holdovers will make it in the mix because they've been dominating the season, but what surprises will we learn Tuesday morning? Here are my picks, based on my expert opinion as someone who watches and interviews the talent involved in these films. (And as someone who otherwise doesn't get out enough and only watches movies and TV and talks about it for a living.)

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BEST PICTURE

Unlike other categories, there will be ten films nominated for Best Picture, offering a wide variety of movies to make it into the mix. As I previously mentioned, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things and The Holdovers will be nominated. You can also count on the Martin Scorsese drama Killers of the Flower Moon to get a nomination. So what films will round out the remaining five? Cord Jefferson's American Fiction and Bradley Cooper's Maestro are two films most likely to be in the bottom half of the nominees. That makes the bottom three spots left wild cards. There's been a lot of love for Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall, so I see that making the cut. I also see Celine Song's Past Lives getting some love as well, as it's been a big sleeper hit with critics. Many are predicting that last slot to go to the foreign film The Zone of Interest, but I'm not feeling it. I feel like the power of Oprah Winfrey will help The Color Purple make the cut.

BEST DIRECTOR

I'm just going to say this now, Christopher Nolan will not only be nominated for Oppenheimer, he'll also win. At this point there's no stopping him, and it's deserved. You can't watch that movie and not go, "Wow, the dude who did this really put in the work." The other guaranteed nominations will go to Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things and Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon. I wish I could say Greta Gerwig is guaranteed to get a nomination for Barbie, but I'm just not as sure about it. I feel like a bunch of directors could look at Barbie like just a blockbuster bubble gum hit, and thus not show Gerwig the love she deserves. That leaves those two remaining slots to be filled by Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest and either Alexander Payne for The Holdovers or Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall. (But let me just say, for the record, I hope I'm wrong about Gerwig.)

BEST ACTRESS

At this point it's a race between Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone for Poor Things. They're guaranteed nominations. I also think Carey Mulligan's work in Maestro will make the cut. (God, she was the movie for me.) Those last two spots are a tight race between five–yes, five—actresses. They are Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall, Margot Robbie for Barbie, Greta Lee for Past Lives, Annette Bening for Nyad and Fantasia Barrino for The Color Purple. Deciding on these final two spots is so difficult. It was such a good year for actresses. But if I had to pick, my money is on Hüller and Robbie getting those last two nominations.

BEST ACTOR

Just like the Best Actress category, the Best Actor race is between two actors: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer and Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers. I'd also be shocked if Bradley Cooper didn't get a nomination for Maestro. Jeffrey Wright's work has been getting a lot of attention in American Fiction, and he's long overdue for a nomination, so expect his name to be in the mix. That leaves one more slot. Killers of the Flower Moon is going to pick up a ton of nominations, so that could give Leonardo DiCaprio a window to sneak in there, but I'm not as convinced he'll make the cut. My gut is telling me—and my heart wants—Colman Domingo to get a nomination for Rustin. Between that and his work in The Color Purple, Domingo has had a great year. The wild card here is Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers. There's a chance that if love for DiCaprio is slim, Domingo and Scott could be the two names fighting for that last spot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Out of all the potential acting nominees this year, there's one person that is not only a guaranteed nomination, but a guaranteed win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers. She's won literally everything, and there's no stopping her at this point. That leaves four other spots, and with the caliber of performances this year, there's a lot to choose from. Two smart choices are on Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer. The bottom two spots are less certain. Hollywood icon Jodie Foster will likely be in the mix for Nyad, which saw her taking on a less flashy role and holding her own while not overshadowing, something we have never really seen her do before. As for the last spot, it's either going to be Julianne Moore for May December or Penelope Cruz for Ferrari. This is such a hard call, but I feel like Moore is going to take it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Going into awards season, it felt like a race between Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer and Charles Melton for May December. But after the Screen Actors Guild Award nominations left Melton out of the mix, it's looking less and less likely he'll pick up a nomination, and it's looking more and more likely that Downey will finally take home the Oscar. So if Downey is guaranteed, how will the other four nominations shape out? Ryan Gosling is the only for-sure acting nomination from Barbie, so expect his name to be announced Tuesday morning. I also can't see a situation where Robert De Niro doesn't get nominated for Killers of the Flower Moon. Those last two spots are a race between five actors, the previously mentioned Melton, Sterling K. Brown for American Fiction, Dominic Sessa for The Holdovers, and Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe for Poor Things. My gut tells me love for Poor Things is going to be strong, not to mention the love for the two past nominees Ruffalo and Dafoe. So I think both of them will make the cut.

The 96th annual Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 10th, at 8pm ET on ABC.