Putin 'Laughing' At NATO: Exiled Official

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his top officials will be "laughing" at NATO's indecision in admitting Ukraine to the alliance and providing all the weapons Kyiv has been asking for to help it defeat the Kremlin's full-scale invasion, according to one Russian diplomat-turned-dissident.

Boris Bondarev—a former Russian representative at the United Nations in Geneva who resigned his position in May 2022 in protest of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine—told Newsweek that NATO's refusal to invite Ukraine into the alliance or provide a clear timeline for its accession would be seen as a victory by the Kremlin.

The sentiment in Moscow, Bondarev said, "would be that NATO didn't invite Ukraine because they are afraid of Russia, they still are still afraid of provoking Putin."

"This can be exploited to Moscow's benefit," Bondarev added. "We may still threaten, we may still make hints that, for instance, a nuclear strike is still an option, and that would help us to keep NATO at bay, so they do not interfere too much. That's how they see it."

NATO's "main mistake," Bondarev said, is its members' continued hesitance to provide Ukraine with the most powerful weapons available, even allowing Kyiv's summer counteroffensive to proceed without such resources. "How can this counteroffensive be effective and efficient and successful if the Ukrainians do not have weapons? That's crazy," he said.

"I think Moscow is laughing at this out loud, because it's so hypocritical...While American strategists, and the British, and others are contemplating some possibilities in their cabinets, Ukrainians are dying every day. What for? They're not China or India, they don't have a billion people ready to recruit."

"I don't want to suggest foul play here from NATO, in that they want Ukrainians to lose and then they will say, 'OK, we helped you, but you failed. Now we must negotiate.' But I think it's short-sightedness."

"It's like the Ukrainians must prove that they are worthy of NATO help. But I think they have proved it from the very beginning."

Vacillation in Vilnius

NATO leaders have touted this week's Vilnius summit as a historic step forward for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic ambitions. The 31-nation bloc—soon to be 32 after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan dropped his opposition to Swedish accession—underscored again that Ukraine will one day be admitted to the alliance, though not while in a hot conflict with Russia.

Member states also agreed that Ukraine would not need to fulfill the Membership Action Plan traditionally required of aspirant nations, and Kyiv won long-term security pledges from G7 nations.

But the alliance's refusal to lay out a timetable for Ukrainian accession elicited frustration in Kyiv, with President Volodymyr Zelensky decrying perceived NATO hesitance as "absurd," though he later lauded the summit's outcomes.

The Kremlin will be encouraged by the mixed signals from Vilnius, Bondarev said.

"We see that NATO is not united," he explained. "And then there is news that it was the U.S. and Germany who strongly opposed the idea of inviting Ukraine into NATO at this time. And it's the U.S. which is the chief ally to Ukraine today, the main source of all military assistance."

"Putin may think that they're starting to change their minds, that they're starting to understand that they cannot win this war."

NATO leaders have made clear they will not risk direct conflict with Russia, fearing a broadened war and nuclear escalation. Such restraint, Bondarev said, will only encourage Moscow.

"The only language Putin and his gang understands that the language of force," the former diplomat said. De-escalation, he added, "is not perceived as a gesture of generosity or some kind of benevolence. It is perceived only as a gesture of weakness."

"A really strong country would not condescend to that in Putin's mind. You only do it if you feel weak, and if you want to appease someone who is stronger, or who may threaten you."

"If a NATO member state is attacked by someone stronger and nuclear, are other NATO countries going to help? Or are they going to make consultations and strongly condemn? Who knows."

Putin's Frozen Wars

NATO sent a clear signal this week that Ukraine will not join while active hostilities with Russia continue. This raises the prospect of another frozen conflict, of the type that has become a hallmark of Russia's post-Soviet foreign policy.

In Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, unresolved wars involving Kremlin proxy and regular forces have won Moscow powerful influence over the direction of these nations, and a de facto veto on their integration into the Euro-Atlantic community.

"The message is this: if you don't want Ukraine to get into NATO, you must still be present in Ukraine, or must still threaten it, you must shell Ukrainian cities," Bondarev said. "You must be a threat which NATO wouldn't like to have for itself. If Ukraine is in NATO, then any threat to Ukraine must be a threat to the entirety of NATO. And the U.S. obviously doesn't want it."

"They give Putin this key to this Ukraine-NATO problem. He understands that as long as he is fighting in Ukraine, Ukraine will not be in NATO. And that's OK, he's fine with it."

"Putin understands now that he must just wait a little bit. And [if] Donald Trump is re-elected president, then the situation will maybe change."

Putin is scrambling to shore up his own position at home after almost 18 months of relative failure in Ukraine, unprecedented isolation from Western markets and technology, and last month's abortive Wagner Group mutiny. The Kremlin may have feared being put further on the backfoot in Vilnius, but Bondarev said the West missed the chance.

"After this [Yevgeny] Prigozhin thing, Putin is in a very weak position," Bondarev said. "One thing that can save him and restore his image is that he manages victory in Ukraine....It all plays into his hands now. I don't see why Western leaders are doing that."

"I think they'll say that that this NATO summit has not achieved everything that everybody expected. So, it's not a big success. We could even call it a failure." Even Sweden's imminent accession won't be seen as "a big loss" in Moscow, Bondarev said, given Stockholm's long-time alignment with the Western bloc.

"They see that there is nothing to really worry about," Bondarev said. "Moscow is in a very good position. I'm not sure they really know what they want in the end, but they use the strongman strategy, they do whatever they can do, and they see there is no resistance from Western countries."

"If you want to bomb Ukraine, you do it. It's only Ukrainians who try to fight you back...Unless they meet something that truly resists them, they go forwards. If they don't meet anything, it just encourages them more."

NATO Cracks

The slow pace of Kyiv's long-awaited counteroffensive has raised concerns that the front lines are solidifying, raising the specter of a costly endless conflict.

Putin intends to outlast his Western adversaries, regardless of repeated assertions from NATO capitals that the alliance will stand with Kyiv "for as long as it takes." Western unity has proved more robust than Kremlin—and many within NATO and the European Union—believed, but the Russian strongman, Bondarev said, has not changed his plan.

"He would love to see NATO and the United States humiliated," he explained. "There will be no continuing victory if there is still war—like a guerrilla war inspired and helped by NATO from across the border. In total victory... NATO must admit that they are defeated."

The cracks in the Western façade on show in Vilnius—where both U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan suggested Kyiv should show more gratitude for allied backing—will give Putin hope, Bondarev added.

"It's very unprofessional on the NATO side," he said. "If your leaders—like President Biden—say that we are all united, then you should shut up. Or if you're frustrated with the Ukrainians, you just express it tête-à-tête without making it public. If you make it public, you show there is dissent among NATO. And that is what feeds the delusions and hopes of Moscow."

This low-level friction was accompanied by more outright warnings from NATO states. Czech President Petr Pavel, for example, suggested that 2023 is Ukraine's window to win back as much territory as possible. Transitioning into 2024, the former NATO commander said, changing weather and political conditions will prompt renewed pressure for negotiations with Moscow.

"They also read the same signals that NATO sends to Moscow," Bondarev said of Zelensky's government. "They might guess that NATO wants to abandon them. If NATO abandons them, then they are doomed, mostly. And then thousands of Ukrainians will have died for nothing."

"They also want some clarity. And I am afraid that NATO cannot provide such clarity, because NATO doesn't have any real strategy for what this victory should look like, how it must be secured after it is achieved, and what to do with Russia."

"And it's evident that they are also very much afraid of Putin being gone. That's also very short-sighted and very stupid, because Putin will die sooner or later. And then you will face this problem sooner or later anyway."

"This constant fear of Russia, of what happens to Russia, of what Russia can do to Ukraine, or to Europe, or to NATO; that feeds Putin."

"You cannot do successful politics if you are scared of anything. I don't think President [Franklin D.] Roosevelt or Prime Minister [Winston] Churchill were very much scared of [Adolf] Hitler. If they were, I don't think they would have prevailed."

"Maybe they were scared but they overcame this fear. And I think that's what Western leaders must do today if they are leaders, and not just puppets."

Newsweek has contacted NATO by email to request comment.