British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace says Moscow "is feeling" the high rate of attrition of its forces in Ukraine and suggested that the Kremlin's bungled response to the recent Wagner Group mutiny indicates a lack of operational Russian reserves.
Speaking during a side event at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Wednesday, Wallace told attendees that Russia is not guaranteed success in Ukraine even if it commits only to holding the 20 percent or so of the country its troops already occupy.
"I don't think Russia [is] heading towards a position where they're going to be able to choose," Wallace said when asked if Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces may decide to seek a frozen conflict to prevent Ukrainian accession to NATO.
"They might be able to choose to hold on, to sort of barricade themselves into Crimea. But at the moment, despite some of the media coverage, Ukraine is advancing every day. It might not be advancing to the timetable that people might have predicted, but it is capturing ground every day. It is costing the Russians to hold it."
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry via email for comment.
Western intelligence agencies believe Moscow has suffered staggering losses in almost 18 months of fighting in Ukraine. Kyiv claims to have "eliminated" more than 235,000 Russian troops since February 24, 2022.
Leaked Pentagon documents suggest 189,500 to 223,000 Russian casualties, including up to 43,000 killed in action. On the Ukrainian side, the Pentagon estimates 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, with some 17,500 thought killed in action. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow releases detailed casualty figures.
Wallace said the Kremlin's slow response to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's "dash for Moscow" suggested "there was precious little Russian reserve, for now, available. So, I don't think Russia has necessarily got the luxury to sit behind some defensive. It tried that."
"Ukraine is making slow but sure successes," Wallace added. "I don't think what's going on in the minds of the Kremlin is that type of rational discussion. I certainly don't think [Putin] has the luxury to do that.
"They are in a position where the attrition rates for the Russian forces are difficult. And yes, Russia has scale on its side. It can generate, or try to regenerate, its industrial base. It can resupply, it can send more young men to their deaths in the way they do. But ultimately, I think we should be more optimistic, we should also reflect on our own weaknesses.
"Everyone I met underestimated Ukraine from day one. I think that continues in that same light. Ukraine has a lot more punch in it. It hasn't committed its reserves. And those reserves can be vital."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
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