Ukraine Has Six Pivotal Months To Retake Its Territory: Czech President

Czech President Petr Pavel has warned that Ukraine—and its NATO backers—have until the end of 2023 to liberate as much territory as possible, before winter weather and a series of pivotal elections precipitate a military lull in which the prospect of negotiation with Moscow will again arise.

Speaking at the NATO Public Forum event on the sidelines of the alliance summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Tuesday, Pavel—a former general who served as Chairman of the NATO Military Committee—told attendees that "whatever is achieved by the end of this year will be the baseline for negotiation."

Kyiv's forces are undertaking a major counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine in the hope of fresh battlefield victories comparable to the operations in 2022 that liberated tens of thousands of square miles. The pace is slow, and casualties reportedly high. Ukrainian leaders and foreign analysts have repeatedly urged patience, but Kyiv is under pressure to deliver results after receiving a glut of new Western weapons.

Pavel said Tuesday that the operation was progressing, but also stressed the time pressure facing Kyiv's forces.

"What we see now is that Ukraine is slowly getting ground, they are probably still looking for weak points in Russian defenses, they still haven't committed major forces that they prepared for the counteroffensive," Pavel said. "So, we will see more done over the summer."

"We also have to see, realistically, the window of opportunity that will more or less close by the end of this year," the president added. "Not only because of winter conditions, but also because of upcoming elections in Ukraine, Russia, the United States."

"We will also see another decline of willingness to massively support Ukraine with more weapons. So, all these conditions will probably lead to a conclusion that whatever is achieved by the end of this year, will be the baseline for negotiation."

"Obviously, I would wish our Ukrainian friends the best possible solution; that means full restoration of their territory occupied even in 2014," Pavel added, referring to the entire 20 percent of Ukraine still occupied by Russian forces. "But the reality will most probably look different."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.

President Volodymyr Zelensky told ABC News last week that his Russian counterpart "will be forced to seek dialogue" if Kyiv's forces reach the administrative border with occupied Crimea in the south of the country. Zelensky and his top officials have repeatedly made clear their commitment to liberating all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and the occupied Donbas.

Pavel said such progress "might be achievable under some conditions." He added: "We'll see what will be the reality."

Pavel and other national leaders are converging this week on Vilnius for the NATO summit, under pressure from Kyiv to expand practical military support for its troops and provide a concrete plan for Ukrainian NATO membership that goes beyond the positive but vague previous commitments.

Multiple NATO leaders—including President Joe Biden—have made clear that Kyiv will not receive an invitation for join while its hot war with Moscow continues. But negotiations are ongoing for stop-gap security agreements with major NATO nations.

"I think what Ukraine needs—beyond equipment, ammunition, money—is encouragement and assurance," Pavel said. "Because this will maintain the high morale of Ukrainian forces. They need to see the light at the end of the tunnel, they need to see and feel motivation."

"They also have to feel that one day they would be welcomed in our family, and we can give them such an assurance by simply saying: 'Once the war is over, we will start the accession process.' This is what they would like to hear. And this is what I would wish they would hear."

Asked if this sentiment reflected an allied consensus, Pavel replied: "I've seen some reservations from several countries, even up until recently. We'll see what will come up in these two days."