Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan dropped his opposition to Sweden's NATO accession on Monday, which for more than a year had roiled an alliance looking to maintain precarious unity while facing down its most pressing external threat in decades.
Erdoğan's decision to support Stockholm's bid removes the penultimate obstacle to NATO's expansion into all five Nordic nations, with Finland having joined the alliance already in April. Sweden is the last puzzle piece for near-total NATO control of the strategic Baltic Sea, which officials and experts have now termed the "NATO Lake."
Assuming Erdoğan's commitment translates to ratification by the Turkish parliament, only Hungary will stand in Stockholm's way. But analysts largely believe that Budapest will fall in line without cover from Ankara. Newsweek has contacted Prime Minister Viktor Orban's office by email to request comment.
Turkish acquiesce is a boon for all NATO nations in the Nordic and Baltic regions, where officials seek to secure the Baltic Sea against Russian fleets, aircraft, and missiles coming from St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad exclave.
Hours before Erdoğan's announcement, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told Newsweek he believed "Swedish membership is inevitable," adding he hoped this week's NATO summit in Vilnius would indeed be the venue at which Erdoğan would "decide finally" in favor of Stockholm.
"I cannot see any serious arguments against the Swedish membership of NATO," Tsahkna said, referring to both the Turkish and Hungarian refusal to ratify the bid.
"Regionally, this is very important that Sweden will become a full member of NATO," the foreign minister explained. "We have very good military cooperation with Sweden as well, but it is at a different level if you're a full member of NATO with Article 5—all for one and one for all—working at the full scale."
"For us, Baltic Sea security is very important, and Sweden has lots to offer," Tsahkna said. "I'm sure that Sweden will become a full member. I really do hope that we will hear it already tomorrow at the NATO summit. As soon as possible is better, this is my position."
"The NATO Lake is crucial for our security. Because, of course, Finland has joined NATO fully and Finland is one of the biggest military powers in our region. We already have this capability to close part of the Baltic Sea. But, of course, Swedish power is really, really important for that."
Sweden will bring significant military force to the NATO alliance, even though Stockholm is not yet hitting the 2 percent of GDP military spending target agreed by allies in 2014.
There are around 38,000 Swedes under arms according to the Global Firepower military analysis website. Stockholm's fighter jet and naval offering will be particularly important in security and policing the Baltic Sea.
Among Sweden's air force are some 70 Saab JAS 39 Gripen aircraft, which are touted for possible use for Ukrainian pilots. And at sea, Sweden's seven corvettes, five submarines, and almost 300 patrol vessels will help NATO eyes watch for Russian Baltic Sea Fleet vessels emerging from St. Petersburg or Kaliningrad.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
