Russia's relentless long-range assault on Ukraine's second city is being paired with a "coordinated information operation" to panic residents and their compatriots elsewhere, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.
"Kremlin mouthpieces are seizing on concerns about a future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City to conduct a likely coordinated information operation in an effort to create outsized panic among Ukrainians," the independent think tank's Monday-evening update read.
Among those focusing on Kharkiv are prominent state television propagandist Vladimir Solovyov. On March 28, he said that Russian forces should destroy Kharkiv City "quarter by quarter," after giving civilians there 48 hours to leave the city. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
The ISW also noted claims in the Russian neo-nationalist publication Tsargrad that a Moscow offensive operation to seize Kharkiv is "inevitable." It added that the fighting there will prove "worse than Bakhmut and Avdiivka," warning that any battle for Kharkiv will also be difficult for Moscow's units.
The northeastern city—long close to the front line—has been attacked by Russian shells, drones and missiles near constantly in recent months. Moscow's units are seeking to exploit Kharkiv's proximity to the battlefield and the reported dearth of Ukrainian air defenses caused by a slowdown in Western aid.
Russian forces have been gathering on the northeastern Luhansk-Kharkiv front for months. They are looking to break through to cities such as Kupiansk and ultimately Kharkiv, overturning the dramatic gains won by counterattacking Ukrainian troops in the fall of 2022.
Ukrainian authorities have previously noted Russian efforts to spread panic in the area. Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation said in February 2024 that Russian Telegram channels were saying that Ukrainian officials were fleeing the city, and in April that there was a "mass exodus" of civilians.
The long-awaited passage of a new funding package for Ukraine has eased concerns of Russian success all along the 900-mile front. The $61 billion is badly needed, but alone is not expected to turn the tide.
"ISW assesses that the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine receives renewed U.S. military aid rapidly," the think tank wrote.
The new funding package will help Kyiv gird itself against an expected Russian offensive this summer. Kharkiv, commanders have said, could be one target of the operation.
"ISW continues to assess that the Russians lack the forces necessary to seize the city as long as Ukrainian forces defending it are adequately supplied, as they will be if the U.S. restarts military assistance soon," the think tank wrote.
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