Russian troops may push from north of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region to join up with their forces to encircle a nearby strategic settlement in which Vladimir Putin wants to soon capture.
That assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) outlines how Russian troops are closing in on Chasiv Yar, which if taken would allow them to command higher ground and target cities further west.
In April, Ukraine's army chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Russia wanted to capture Chasiv Yar by Victory Day on May 9, marking Moscow's role in defeating Nazi Germany.
Chasiv Yar would provide Russian forces with a staging ground to launch offensive operations against Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, which form the fortress belt of the Donetsk regional cities of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
The ISW said on Tuesday that for the first time in several days, Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the area around Avdiivka, which was captured in February by Moscow after a fierce fight.
Also significant was the Ukrainian General Staff saying that its forces repelled 47 Russian attacks in the Avdiivka direction and 57 attacks in the Bakhmut direction, which was a much higher number than attacks in the Chasiv Yar direction.
"It may suggest that Russian forces are somewhat slowing down the rate of attacks around Avdiivka while re-committing to offensive pushes around Chasiv Yar," the ISW update said.
The update suggested that such a tactical pause may precede a push by Russian forces from the north of Avdiivka towards the Toretsk area "to complement Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar."
Russian forces are capitalizing on the shortage of Ukrainian manpower and munitions which Kyiv is eagerly awaiting after the United States approved a $61 billion military aid package.
"I hope we receive artillery shells soon," Oleh Shyriaiev, commander of Ukraine's 225th Separate Assault Battalion that is fighting near Chasiv Yar, told Reuters, describing how his unit was under near-constant attack from Russian drones.
Retired Australian major general Mick Ryan said in a Substack post on Wednesday that the coming months will reveal whether Ukraine can accept some Russian tactical gains but stop them securing the entire Donbas region, which comprises of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
"The battlefield situation at present is grim but not disastrous," for Ukraine, Ryan wrote, adding that even if Russia pushes hard before U.S. military aid arrives, "there is potential for significant surprises, from both sides, in the weeks ahead."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more
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